I think this part is very real.
If you’re in this thread saying “I don’t get it” you are in danger much faster than your coworker who is using it every day and succeeding at getting around AI’s quirks to be productive.
They’re all 90% there.
The thing is the last 10% is 90% of the effort. The last 1% is 99% of the effort.
For those of us who can consistently finish projects the future is bright.
The sheer amount of vibe code is simply going to overwhelm us (see current state of open source)
If AI tightens down the job market I just don't see why there would need to be this frantic urgency to adopt it. Getting a small head start might not mean very much once the dust has settled. Employers will still be cutting, and there will still be new blood who will adapt to new technology faster than you can.
The real danger is if management sees this as acceptable. If so best of luck to everyone.
Already happening. It's just an extension of the "move fast and break stuff" mantra, only faster. I think the jury is still out on if more or less things will break, but it's starting to look like not enough to pump the brakes.
Sure, many such cases. We'll all have work for a while, if only so that management has someone to yell at when things break in prod. And break they will -- the technology is not perfected and many are now moving faster than they can actually vet the results. There is obvious risk here.
But the curve we're on is also obvious now. I'm seeing massive improvements in reliability with every model drop. And the model drops are happening faster now. There is less of an excuse than ever for not using the tools to improve your productivity.
I think the near future is going to be something like a high-speed drag race. Going slow isn't an option. Everyone will have to go fast. Many will crash. Some won't and they will win.
I think this is right. This is what we as engineers have to wrap our minds around. This is the game we're in now, like it or not.
> Many will crash.
Aside from alignment, and some of these bigger picture concerns, prompt injection looms large. It's an astoundingly large, possibly unsolvable vector for all sorts of mayhem. But many people are making the judgment that there's too much to be gained before the shocks hit them. So far, they're right.
But there's nothing inherent about agentic coding to lead to slop outcomes. If you're steering it as a human, you can tweak the output, by hand or agentically, until it matches your expectations. It's not currently a silver bullet.
That said, my experience is that the compressing of the research, initial draft process, and revision--all which used to be the bulk of my job--is radical.