[flagged]
I've been a project manager for years. I still work on some code myself, but most of it is done by the rest of the team.
On one hand, I have more bandwidth to think about how the overall application is serving the users, how the various pieces of the application fit together, overall consistency, etc. I think this is a useful role.
On the other hand, I definitely have felt mental atrophy from not working in the code. I still think; I still do things and write things and make decisions. But I feel mentally out of shape; I lack a certain sharpness that I perceived when I was more directly in tune with the code.
And I'm talking, all orthogonal to AI. This is just me as a project manager with other humans on the project.
I think there is truth to, well, operate at a higher level! Be more systems-minded, architecture-minded, etc. I think that's true. And there are surely interesting new problems to solve if we can work not on the level of writing programs, but wielding tools that write programs for us.
But I think there's also truth to the risk of losing something by giving up coding. Whether if that which might be lost is important to you or not, is your own decision, but I think the risk is real.
That doesn't even have to be writing a ton of code, but reading the code, getting intimately familiar with the metrics, querying the logs, etc.
Back when automatic piano players came out, if all the world's best piano players stopped playing and mostly just composing/writing music instead, would the quality of the music have increased or decreased. I think the latter.
You would think, but Claude Code has gotten incredibly more efficient over time. They are doing so much dogfooding with these things at this point that it makes more sense to optimize.
I'd say there's very little jobs that SWE automated away outside of SOME data entry, SWE's built abstractions on top of existing processes. LLM companies want to abstract away the human entirely.
And I haven't to solve real hard problems for ages.
Some people will have problems some will not.
Future will tell.
When you hear execs talking about AI, it's like listening to someone talk about how they bought some magic beans that will solve all their problems. IMO the only thing we have managed to do is spend alot more money on accelerated compute.
lmao, please explain to me why these companies should be valued at 200x revenue.. They are providing autocomplete APIs.
How come Google's valuation hasn't increased 100-200x, they provide foundation models + a ton more services as well and are profitable. None of this makes sense, its destined to fail.
Let me start by conceding on the company value front; they should not have such value. I will also concede that these models lower your value of labor and quality of craft.
But what they give in return is the ability to scale your engineering impact to new highs - Talented engineers know which implementation patterns work better, how to build debuggable and growable systems. While each file in the code may be "worse" (by whichever metric you choose), the final product has more scope and faster delivery. You can likewise choose to hone in the scope and increase quality, if that's your angle.
LLMs aren't a blanket improvement - They come with tradeoffs.
the em dashes in your reply scare me, but I'll assume you're a real person lol.
I think your opinion is valid, but tell that to the C Suite who's laid of 400k tech workers in the last 16 months in the USA. These tools don't seem to be used to empower high quality engineering, only to naively increase the bottom line by decreasing the number of engineers, and increasing workloads on those remaining.
Full disclosure, I haven't been laid off ever, but I see what's happening. I think when the trade-off is that your labor is worth a fraction of what it used to be and you're also expected to produce more, then that trade-off isn't worth it.
It would be a lot different if the signaling from business leaders was the reverse. If they believed these tools empowered labor's impact to a business, and planned on rewarding on that, it would be a different story. That's not what we are seeing, and they are very open about their plans for the future of our profession.
Automation can be good overall for society, but you also can't ignore the fact that basically all automation has decreased the value of the labor it replaced or subsidized.
This automation isn't necessarily adding value to society. I don't see any software being built that's increasing the quality of people's life, I don't see research being accelerated. There is no economic data to support this either. The economic gains are only reflected in the values of companies who are selling tokens, or have been able to decrease their employee-counts with token allowances.
All I see is people sharing CRUD apps on twitter, 50 clones of the same SaaS, ,people constantly complaining about how their favorite software/OS has more bugs, the cost of hardware and electricity going up and people literally going into psychosis. (I have a list of 70+ people on twitter that I've been adding too that are literally manic and borderline insane because of these tools).
But hey, at least your favorite AI evangelist from that podcast you loved can afford the $20,000/night resort this summer...
Depends on what the aim of your labor is. Is it typing on a keyboard, memorizing (or looking up) whether that function was verb_noun() or noun_verb(), etc? Then, yeah, these tools will lower your value. If your aim is to get things done, and generate value, then no, I don't think these tools will lower your value.
This isn't all that different from CNC machining. A CNC machinist can generate a whole lot more value than someone manually jogging X/Y/Z axes on an old manual mill. If you absolutely love spinning handwheels, then it sucks to be you. CNC definitely didn't lower the value of my brother's labor -- there's no way he'd be able to manually machine enough of his product (https://www.trtvault.com/) to support himself and his family.
> Using these things will fry your brain's ability to think through hard solutions.
CNC hasn't made machinists forget about basic principles, like when to use conventional vs climb milling, speeds and feeds, or whatever. Same thing with AI. Same thing with induction cooktops. Same thing with any tool. Lazy, incompetent people will do lazy, incompetent things with whatever they are given. Yes, an idiot with a power tool is dangerous, as that tool magnifies and accelerates the messes they were already destined to make. But that doesn't make power tools intrinsically bad.
> Do you want your competency to be correlated 1:1 to the quality and quantity of tokens you can afford (or be loaned!!)?
We are already dependent on electricity. If the power goes out, we work around that as best as we can. If you can't run your power tool, but you absolutely need to make progress on whatever it is you're working on, then you pick up a hand tool. If you're using AI and it stops working for whatever reason, you simply continue without it.
I really dislike this anti-AI rhetoric. Not because I want to advocate for AI, but because it distracts from the real issue: if your work is crap, that's on you. Blaming a category of tool as inherently bad (with guaranteed bad results) suggests that there are tools that are inherently good (with guaranteed good results). No. That's absolutely incorrect. It is people who fall on the spectrum of mediocrity-to-greatness, and the tools merely help or hinder them. If someone uses AI and generates a bunch of slop, the focus should be on that person's ineptitude and/or poor judgement.
We'd all be a lot better off if we held each other to higher standards, rather than complaining about tools as a way to signal superiority.
It would be insulting, they'd get screamed out of the kitchen. Now imagine they're telling those chefs they're going to enforce those methods on them regardless whether they like it or not.