For little scripts, I'm not writing unit tests- running it is the test. But I want to be able to iterate without side effects, so it's important that the dry mode be as representative as possible for what'll happen when something is run for real.
For me personally, I tend to draw the line at write operations. So in your example, I'd want a dry run to verify the permissions that it can (if I expect those to be a problem). But if that can't easily be done without a write, then maybe it's not worth it. There are also situations where you want a dry run to be really fast, so you forego some checks (allowing for more surprises later). Really just depends.