I mostly agree with you but I AM super productive with AI. I'm working on a side-project and have built in 2-3 months what my quite productive team of 3-4 people would take 4-6 months to build in 2016. And I'm not talking to generative slop but real production grade code that I have reviewed+approved or manually refactored before merging. Like you I'm not impressed by these toy projects but the productivity gain is very real. At least has been for me.