The author paints a nice picture but there's a lot of wishful thinking and projection there.
I beg to differ...I have a feeling the needle will indeed move, but it won't be a single big jolt. Overall, I think it will be oh so very slow over this and the next couple of years. Sure, some percentage of windows users will migrate over...but i think the bulk will keep using windows until the machine literally dies, and will ignore as many error messages and warning that microsoft displays to them. ...and that death of windows usage will take time, hence why i think it will take time...but i do indeed feel that the needle will move...its just that its only beginning now, but not yet ending. ;-) Time will tell of course.
Then it seems you're not disagreeing with parent: they're saying "needle barely moved", you're saying "it will move".
They're talking about the present; you're talking about the future.
At this point I don't even have sympathy for Windows users. They choose their lot.
And yet their standards still haven’t dropped low enough for Linux to be an acceptable replacement. I don’t think that’s a knock on the Windows user, but an indication that Linux desktop (and its replacement applications) still isn’t user-friendly enough for most people.
I personally prefer it at this point. Dolphin blows away explorer, window management is more slick and more flexible out of the box and it also happens to be deeply customizable.
I have a feeling modern Linux on this machine wouldn't be worse than what it shipped with. The days of fighting for 3 days with audio or printer drivers after an install are mostly behind us.
What is "Linux for normals" besides Android anyway? If that's the crap you actually want, use it. But no, that's not good enough, you want to bring the riff raff into real distros to stink up the place. I hope this never works.
Then I started reading the Arch wiki on this task. It forced me to learn things like MBR vs GPT. Then it said Windows by default makes an EFI partition way too small so I have to re-create a new partition by temporarily mounting EFI, saving the files, deleting the EFI partition, and recreating a new one.
This seems like a horribly complex task and I can envision about a million unwritten things that can go wrong that the answer would be "well duh, that's obvious if you had any experience with linux disk partitioning. I myself bricked a dozen PCs."
Deleting the EFI partition, if it goes wrong, by definition my system would be bricked until I could figure things out.
Also, everything must be typed into terminal exactly with no error and one chance. (If the typo causes the command to error, phew. if the typo causes something else to happen, beware)
So yes, I have a lack of taste.
Arch is a Manual experience designed for power users. It is not a good choice for even your average Linux user, let alone a first time Windows convert dipping their toes.
If Windows had never hidden the natural complexity of EFI, or chosen sane defaults, your experience would be better. It is absolutely insane to blame that on Arch.
And my comment about desktop usage is based on these projections: https://www.webpronews.com/linux-breaks-5-desktop-share-in-u...
I also don't think any of that matters much, because it's done nothing at all to the enterprise market, which is still full of Windows and other Microsoft stuff and that shows no sign of shifting.
* Proton got really good and the Steam Deck is making inroads for Linux on the desktop. We are at the point were even gaming publications start to say: you could as well run Linux.
* The disintegration of the 80-years long transatlantic alliance. This really has a lot of people thinking about their big tech dependence on the east side of the ocean (and perhaps Canada?). Currently a lot of OwnCloud pilots are being started in European universities and other organizations. I see more and more people in my country buying Fairphones, the adventurous people even with /e/OS. There seems to be more interest in the Linux desktop.
The change is not very fast yet, but awareness is increasing and the ball starts rolling.
As an American I'm super disgusted with the current administration and the awful things they are doing...but I'm also a big supporter of open source and an advocate of every group's sovereignty....so if increased digital sovereignty for many nations (and my good friends all over the world), plus more software freedoms for everyone globally is one of the unexpected manifestations...then that's wonderful, at least something good comes out of the current chaos! As Europe, Canada, other nations start pilots for using their own instances of open source software (like Owncloud,etc.), i welcome that and wish them all the best!!!
For one, I am in a season of heavy workload and little free time. So I need to wait for my next period of reduced workload.
Second, I am not desperate for a new PC yet and it's hard to justify spending the money at this time.
Roughly my plan is to get a new PC this summer and start with a dual boot approach. So at first it will be more like going from 100% Windows to 80% Linux 20% Windows or something. Over time as circumstances afford maybe I can do away with windows altogether.
Just one data point - I am someone who has been using windows for over 30 years but Microsoft pissed me off so much in 2025 that I have a committed to switching even if it takes me years.
Still too soon, no? Windows 10 continues to work just fine. The layman using it doesn't really care — and probably doesn't even realize — that it isn't supported anymore. Only when they start to have trouble will they start to care. Eventually a time will come when they want to use some new software that won't work in it, or what have you. When that time comes, that will be the true test.