It depends on how you calculate statistics. If you are designing a file format that over the lifetime of the format hundreds of millions of user will use (storing billions of files), what are the chances that 32 bits checksum won't be able to catch at least one corruption? During transfer over unstable wireless internet connection, storage on cheap flash drive, poor HDD with a higher error rate, unstable RAM etc. We want to avoid data corruption if we can even in less then ideal conditions. Cost of going from 32 bit to 64 bit hashes is very small.