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Comment by khalic | Hacker News Reader

Idk the pro china side is getting more and more support, at this rate they’ll vote themselves into mainland

Well, the reality is that most people don't want a bloodbath and it's increasingly looking like external support won't come, so what you gonna do... life is a very complex chess game, gotta play your pieces right.

At this rate, even if they can't get the Taiwanese population to consent, it probably makes more sense to wait anyway to see how low America can sink. The lower America goes, the better their chance for success.

China is capable of taking long term view, beyond single election cycle. And currently USA really seems to be heading down faster and faster.

If something even more drastic happens. China might even attempt unification with some reasoning like protecting Taiwan from USA or other nations.

Where do you see the pro china side getting more and more support? As far as I can tell it's sharply swung towards maintaining independence in the past decade or two with single digit support of unification with the mainland.

https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963

https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6963/Tondu202512.png

An EU type agreement will keep peace for some time. Remove all trade barriers between two countries, have a treaty preventing any side to be used militarily by third party, no attacking each other and free movement of all vessels through each other's seas. Maybe few more

Thats just buying China more time until they can get their chip manufacturing to at least a similar ballpark. Then Taiwan has no cards left to play. China can cripple TSMC depriving the west of chips while they continue onwards.

"buying China more time". China has no time-pressure to attack immediately, but all the upside right now of pretending to a stable, sensible world leader. Treaty with Taiwan will keep the ego of One China, prevent it from naval blockade by Taiwanese territories and will remove one of the major territorial issues raised against it.

I don't know about that...don't they have massive overcapacity in many of their industries as well as ~25% youth unemployment? For all the mess the US is going through at least we are seeing it out in the open. China seems to be going through their own messes right now but it is behind the great wall. Will a treaty be enough or will their leaders falter and try to push for more. Guess we will see.

I don't think is about China, it's more about Winnie the Pooh's legacy.

I think Taiwanese elites can be bought, they say they can’t but I think that’s just part of the bargaining for a higher price. The overtures towards a costly and destructive invasion is Chinas attempt at lowering that price. As is the strategy of building up an indigenous chip manufacturing industry. The aggressive rhetoric from China has the added benefit of keeping the US on a self sabotaging aggressive posture.

I mean that's obviously the best outcome for the Chinese government. Same thing that happens/ed to Hongkong. War is bad for everybody.

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