It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.
I'm not quite sure what process they run there but I believe it was an acquisition 10+ years ago, not built from the ground up by them.
Edit: their Japan fab is also a mature node so not very relevant here. And their Arizona fab is a very very small portion of their volume and with far worse margin.
It is economic MAD.
Or China can wait 20-30 years and the US will no longer care about Taiwan or have the resources to have much presence in the eastern hemisphere.
I think the saber rattling over Taiwan is just to get the US to spend themselves further into oblivion in the short term. We are in the war already and the saber rattling is an incredibly effective, asymmetric financial weapon. It builds up the Chinese military kinetic capacity long term while weakening the US military kinetic capacity long term by forcing the US to prepare for something that is never going to happen.
When China takes Taiwan it will be without firing a shot. I would bet the house on that because it kind of has to be that way to win the war and not just a self destructive battle.
China is achieving its objectives brilliantly. The US is increasingly isolated and this is the process of retreating into the western hemisphere. NATO is being destroyed without firing a shot.
I think the bigger problems of the AI bubble are energy and that it's gaining a terrible reputation for being the excuse for mass layoffs while suffocating the Internet with slop/brainrot content. All while depending on government funding to grow.
There would be a supply crunch but a lot of dollars will be shuffled VERY fast to ramp up production.
If something even more drastic happens. China might even attempt unification with some reasoning like protecting Taiwan from USA or other nations.
Either that, or the leader does have access to the best information, and they just DGAF. That condition seems to be going around too.
/s (unless???)