I'm confused, you argue that nutrition is a "stupidly complex science" and as far as I can tell, are insinuating that most of these people who read "pop science books" on nutrition will be overconfident in their knowledge/understanding on the issue. But in your second reference to your blog you argue on one side of the issue, specifically taking the side against popular authors like Taubes. If the science is so utterly complex, why do you simply take the side arguing against ketosis diets (in that they are not superior to simply following calories in, calories out logic?) Are you more informed because you read blogs like Guyenet's instead of books by Taubes?
From a blind perspective, I wouldn't say that Guyenet is strikingly more scientific than Taubes. I'm not sure what the line about Guyenet being a "sciency scientist", but supposedly Taubes not, is about. On the one hand you argue against casual confidence in nutritional science based on popular science writings, and on the other you take a high level of confidence yourself in certain theories...based on popular science writings. hmmm.
From your blog:
>Net calories is, therefore, a forcing element in this system.
It's funny how you argue against simplifications, but this one of the biggest made in any dietary context. Calories in, calories out, is only relevant to the weight loss issue in one direction. You can't burn more energy than you take in, but you do not necessarily store in fat energy that you take in but don't specifically burn out. So the argument is that with a ketosis diet, you can intake extra calories and not get heavier, so long as they are protein/fat calories. This is backed up by fairly strong empirical evidence, which as your blog suggests, is more important than knowing the dangerous and deceptive complexities of the exact chemistry of the human body. Go with what works, and for most people, losing weight on a low-carb diet will be a helluva lot easier than on a low calorie, high-carb diet, your personal experience notwithstanding.
And:
>"Calories in minus calories out, ultimately, settles the body weight balance."
In that this is not unreasonably universal advice, but that it should just be the default diet advice instead of "low calories" for weight loss, that statement is incorrect. It is ridiculously easier to lose weight on a low-carb diet and sustain it than on a simply low calorie diet. For most people. If you enjoy persistent food cravings and low energy levels, and potentially deleterious effects on your long term health (from low fat diets.), then sure, eat a high-carb diet.