My decades of experience suggests that the opposite will happen. People will realize that the software industry is 100% moat and 0% castle.
People will build great software that nobody will use while a few companies will continue to dominate with vaporware.
that makes no sense. "Dominate" implies people use or buy you software. If you produce nothing ("vaporware") how can you dominate?
They're vaporware in relation to what else is available.
Company: 6 month change:
============================
Palantir: +20%
Salesforce: -9%
Shopify: +40%
Intuit: -26%
ServiceNow: -30%
Adobe: -17%
CrowdStrike: -1.5%
Snowflake: -3%
Cloudflare: 0%
Autodesk: -9%
Except for the token cost maybe.
If a superior product launches without marketing, it will not get a single customer; it's incredibly hard to spread through word of mouth these days... With paid advertising, you end up paying Facebook inflated CPC to get bot traffic!