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Comment by tptacek | Hacker News Reader

I think that's an extraordinary claim.

Why do you think it's extraordinary?

I know quite a lot of Iranians, and when I talked about this with them about a year ago, their lay of the land given their own opinions and their wider networks opinion is that the majority of Iranians are pro-regime change but NOT at the hands of a US/Israeli intervention.

There are anti-regime segments that are pro-US/Israel intervention, but they think this is a minority and they think most of them are products of foreign intervention.

After Israel bombed Iran last year, there were a few Israeli cells that were uncovered in Iran, so suggesting there is some foreign intervention isn't out of the ordinary.

> After Israel bombed Iran last year, there were a few Israeli cells that were uncovered in Iran, so suggesting there is some foreign intervention isn't out of the ordinary.

What a leap of logic. I’d wager not being able to afford basic necessities and also your women being killed by morality police, not having any political freedom, not being able to decide how your government is run, etc. are enough incentives. Don’t you think the people there have enough agency to want all of these? If Israel wanted to intervene, it looks like Iranian government is doing their work for them by making Iran a living hell for its people.

The protests are, by credible reporting, huge, reflected in the scale of the number of arrests and fatalities. Their antecedents include sky-high unemployment, the highest inflation rates in the world, and water and power rationing --- far more severe and far more directly material conditions than what preceded the 2022 protests. Diverse outlets have the signal chant of the protesters "Neither Gaza Nor Lebanon, My Life Only For Iran", which correlates well with the belief the the IRGC is effectively an Iranian version of the KGB, a second "inner society" whose large membership has preferential access to everything ordinary Iranians don't.

Some of this is disputable, much of it isn't. Meanwhile:

* There's no evidence that foreign powers are behind these protests, just narratives. The track record on unsupported but convincing-sounding narratives everywhere is pretty bad; nowhere is it worse than in this part of the world.

* There's no evidence that the protests themselves are pro-US (and certainly not pro-Israel; most of the protesters probably don't like Israel!). They just want water, jobs, and currency that can reliably buy food.

* There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled. Iran is incredibly weak right now. Regional powers like Turkey, Saudi, and especially Israel --- which has basically depantsed the IRGC --- don't actually have much to gain from an Iranian overthrow, but the whole region has a lot to lose from instability.

So yeah, I'd say: pretty extraordinary claim --- again, that claim being, "the anti-regime movement is the product of foreign intervention".

I want to keep saying: I don't think the protests will be successful. It's a state specifically designed to prevent protests movements like these from being successful! They may suck at air defense, but I don't think they're bad at putting down rebellions.

> There's no evidence that foreign powers are behind these protests

Depends how stringently you mean that.

Earlier this year Israel attacked Iran with the stated intent of helping the people with regime change.

The mossad stated they have agents acting in the field. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733

The whole reason for doing sanctions was to get to this point, too.

If you're trying to say that the vast majority of citizens aren't taking orders from foreign powers, then sure.

But "no evidence that foreign powers are behind these protests" is a pretty extreme thing to say

> There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled

I’m sorry what? Maybe this is an argument over terminology, but Israel absolutely wants Iran toppled in any colloquial definition of the word. This has been their stated goal since the 90s. And much of their activity in the Middle East since then is towards this goal.

> and especially Israel --- which has basically depantsed the IRGC --- don't actually have much to gain

Again I’m sorry what? Iran has been a major deterrent to their regional hegemony for decades. Remove US support and Israel is destroyed. They need these threats removed so they can end their reliance on US support.

I know there's a sizable cohort of online people in the west who are convicted of the idea that Israel exists solely as a US proxy and is held in check only by Iran, but obviously no. Israel --- leave aside all the moral stuff right now --- is a hypercapable advanced high-state-capacity regional nuclear power with an extremely effective military. If they didn't buy arms from us, they'd buy them from someone we liked less.

Iran, on the other hand, partly as a result of Khomeinism and the status quo ante of the Iranian Revolution, when the military was a big part of the repression apparatus in the Shah's state, has more or less gutted its official military service branches. As we just saw, Israel literally controls Iran's own airspace. They flew slow drones over Tehran, presumably just as a "fuck you". Iran placed a huge bet on projecting military force through regional proxies --- the "Axis of Resistance". What they have instead of a modern military is the IRGC. See how that went for them!

What point are you trying to make here? I said Israel obviously wants Iran gone and stands to gain a lot from doing so. You didn’t address either of those points, which are extremely relevant when trying to understand why foreign powers want this regime removed and would be involved in its removal.

I agree Israel is not a US proxy (the tail wags the dog in this relationship), but freeing oneself from needing the (or any) dog is a sizable gain. Regarding Iran I think they know this. Their military is structured to operate in a post regime world. But that world doesn’t have the capacity to produce nuclear weapons, which is the key goal Israel is after. Iran with nuclear weapons likely ensures the regimes existence for the foreseeable future.

The general idea is that Iran would be more effective as a regional power if it wasn't ruled by islamists. And that at least the current government of Israel likes incompetent neighbours that make them look good.

Not a difficult argument in my view. Unless you're stuck believing what they say instead of observing what they do.

It seems pretty reasonably that Israel would be happy with a neighbor that doesn't call for its annihilation out of ideologic reasons.

You literally just asked me to write that. I didn't have a point to make; I was answering a question you just asked.

> There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled

...proceeds to describe how Israel is a major government

And?

Israel doesn't want Iran toppled?

I don't think there's really clear evidence. They're geopolitical adversaries, but Iran's ability to project force has been decimated over the last 2 years, to the point where Israel literally controls Iran's airspace. They have not much more to gain from further injury to the Iranian regime, and something to lose from regional instability.

(I don't think this analysis speaks well of Israel, for what it's worth, but I don't really think about countries in those terms anyways.)

Are you saying that Israel's public statements (and actions) can't be taken at face value? or are you not aware of these:

Netanyahu Urges Iranians To Rise Up Against Their Leaders https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcbYzBImi4c

Israel hopes for regime change in Iran https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/01/11/...

Israel strikes state-run Iranian TV during live broadcast after Iranian missiles kill 8 in Israel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RkR46Wlv6g

Inside Israel's attack on Iran's Evin Prison https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czd0e23j9q8o

What is the point of attacking a TV station and a prison, if not for regime change?

For the record, I agree with you that Israel has little "to gain from further injury to the Iranian regime, and something to lose from regional instability." I just don't think the people in charge of Israel see it that way. I think they feel they have a short window to achieve certain objectives they've wanted for a long time while Trump is in power).

And I think they prefer to have regional instability - a bunch of weaker chess pieces that they can play against each other - like how they supported both sides of the Iran-Iraq war in the 80's, funded Hamas, ISIS, and ISIS-derived militias to achieve short-term goals etc..

In case you didn't know about the last few points, here are some links:

Netanyahu defends arming Palestinian clans accused of ties with jihadist groups https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/06/netanyahu-defe...

Report: Israel treating al-Qaida fighters wounded in Syria civil war https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/report-israel-treating-al-...

Ex-Mossad head on Israel medical aid to al-Nusra Front - UpFront https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vweHtxqnh-Y

The Israeli Army Is Allowing Gangs in Gaza to Loot Aid Trucks and Extort Protection Fees From Drivers https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-11-11/ty-article/.p...

Gangs looting Gaza aid operate in areas under Israeli control, aid groups say https://archive.is/20250606105700/https://www.washingtonpost...

“Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” Netanyahu told his Likud party’s Knesset members in March 2019. “This is part of our strategy" https://x.com/haaretzcom/status/1711329340804186619?s=46&t=s...

A Brief History of the Netanyahu-Hamas Alliance https://archive.ph/qHya5

By the way, regarding "Israel literally controls Iran's airspace" - Iran don't really have an air force. Their deliberate strategy given their limited resources was to focus on a ballistic missile program and all things considered this has worked ok. By the way, Israel failed to deliver a knock-out blow to Iran even when they had the element of surprise with an attack that was planned 18 months in advance (drafted during the Biden administration) yet somehow Iran was able to begin answering within 48 hours and do enough damage (which required penetrating anti-missile defenses of several major powers) that Israel agreed to a cease-fire.

After the 12-day war, China immediately sold Iran a number of J10-C fighters and air defense options, but it takes months to deliver/train all of them. So Israel is incentivized to deliver a knock-out blow to Iran before this window closes as well. In other words, Israel's war is the 'cause its own necessity' (1).

1 - The Acquired Immune System-A Vantage from Beneath https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(04)00307-3

I agree, Iran doesn't really have an air force. In fact, they don't really even have a military --- by deliberate design. Iran will never field a competitive air force and I think it's actually pretty unlikely that they'll ever even field a seriously deterrent air defense system. I think that apart from lobbing MRBMs at Israel they simply aren't a serious regional threat anymore. They bet big on the IRGC Axis and it collapsed.

I'm not as convinced as you (and the Economist) are about Israel's interests in the total collapse of the Iranian regime. Either way, the protest movement is far too large for it to plausibly be a product of foreign intervention. I don't think we have to convince each other on this point, even if we don't agree.

I think you're constantly making non sequiturs around details that aren't central to the point. I could answer these, but I don't want to get distracted. At the end of the day, given everything you know, you don't believe that Netanyahu wants the Iranian regime toppled?

Revolutions can have some component of foreign intervention without necessarily negating the will of the people. The French aided the US, for example. So I don't know why the idea that the Iran protests are not foreign backed is so important to you.

There is plenty of public evidence of foreign backing of Iranian opposition (which interestingly might actually play right into the Mullahs' hands https://www.meforum.org/mef-observer/has-reza-pahlavi-become...) but it would make sense for there to be orders of magnitude more activity behind the scenes vs. what is publicly stated. For example, the US didn't admit participating in the 1953 coup of Mossadegh until 2013.

So please tell me how you are so sure that there is no foreign intervention today..

I'm not sure what you expect from a conversation where you open with an accusation of bad faith and close by demanding I prove a negative.

It’s your choice to claim a negative in the first place. But yes, make an attempt to prove what you are saying and extraordinary claims require some evidence. Foreign countries have been meddling with Iran for over 200 years at the very least. The idea that now they aren’t is laughable.

I opened by showing how your statements are in direct contradiction, by the way.

It's just you and me talking and reading at this point, so I'm really not seeing what the hostility is getting you.

What hostility?

A year ago. Not much has happened in that area over the last year...

Mossad itself confirmed boots on the ground: “We are with you. Not only from a distance and verbally. We are with you in the field.”. See https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733

The claim isn't "Mossad has boots on the ground". Everybody agrees the Mossad is in Iran, and the IRGC is in Israel.

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