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Comment by 152334H | Hacker News Reader

> Beijing has been preparing for Cold War without eagerness for waging it, while the US wants to wage a Cold War without preparing for it.

great line

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I don't care who the next hegemon will be; US or China. But please pray, can these people tell what their next strategy is for the rest of the world after the Cold War ends. Will the next regime advance sciences further after whichever side wins the Cold War? Can't that be done without the war? US has been hegemon since last 5 or so decades; has it worked out best even ONLY for the Americans if not for the rest of the world. I will ask a very obvious question taught as a intuition pump by Daniel Dennett, "Then What? Then What? Then What?". Do these blob forces have post-Cold War steps figured out for the best of humanity, if not for whole of humanity but a national subset.

Here is a fun representation I have in my mind:

Galactic Emperor

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfQbm8Wk2vU

from my understanding, US strategy "for the world" is "you sell me things, I sell you dollars, do democracy or else" - while best China guess seems to be "build business, together, don't push your agenda on others or else" (as with anything, these will change over several decades tho)

but main divide seems to form on "ngo vs government" lines, imo - and ironically the exact opposite way of the proclaimed "authoritarian China vs USAID america" of the previous decade-or-two. (As always, best path is somewhere in the middle between the two)

the main thing that will happen for sure - globalization, unification into bigger and bigger pieces will continue. Sure, big pieces might go further from each other - but smaller ones will will get closer and closer (unless we all die, of course)

The way China have done/do "business" with non-Han ethnicities is a very creative way of abiding by the maxim "don't push your agenda on others".

All jokes aside, current China and current US administration believe in "might makes right", like any criminal gang. They both like to abolish the rules based order, any smaller "piece" will be on the menu in this school of thought.

I don't know if it's that hard to figure out, at least in the short-term. China's #1 goal should be to keep the value of their currency stable and push hard on the neoliberal expansionist path. If the United States' financialized economy starts to sag, this is China's opportunity to provide discount stability to the nations that China needs as allies.

> China's #1 goal should be to keep the value of their currency stable

this kinda goes against the very policy of China for the last decade-2-3 of almost-manual depreciation of RMB to make export easier

> this is China's opportunity to provide discount stability to the nations that China needs as allies

and it's US strat to boost allies with money donations - while China seems to be more about joint infrastructure and industry building

It's not clear what the US plan even is. Move all manufacturing back home and compete with China ASAP?

Even if it’s a goal, it’s not a plan. The article talks about it, but Biden’s push for manufacturing wasn’t very aggressive, and Trump has basically stopped it. We’ve seen a loss in manufacturing jobs from tariffs and Trump idiotically deported Korean engineers working in local battery production plants. Simply protecting our existing companies (which are not very efficient, see shipbuilders) is not even close to enough to competing

With trump at the helm, do you think there is much of a plan?

The US doesn't have a plan, it has a framework. The framework allows it to be nimble in a way that centralized economies (like China) can never match. My money's on the US out-competing everyone else in the long run.

I can’t tell if this is sarcasm or if you are serious. The USA’s framework is to just wish for things to happen and then be surprised when those things don’t happen. There is basically no executing plan beyond grifting money to a few corporations because they supported the president during the election.

Seriously, and we have one of the most centrally planned economies in existence, it's just controlled by the elites rather than through democratic norms as it was during the new deal coalition.

Plan?

They don't even have a concept of a plan.

The "US plan," is driven by the executive office. That is to say, the by the US president.

Insofar as there is any plan, the current officeholder's priorities are to project the appearance of personal power on television. If you're wondering what's going on strategically, don't go thinking that there's some grand plan, or even an intention to benefit the United States in the long term. There are some people in the cabinet who are thinking long term, but that's not universal, and that's not what they're selected for. Every action that is taken is to satisfy the president's narcissism and ego in the present moment. You have to understand the "US plan" in this light for anything coming out of the executive office to make sense.

The US plan is to enrich oligarchs who are friendly with Trump and to enact white nationalist policies.

Anything beyond that is just like a kid playing an arcade game without putting any quarters in.

It all falls into place if you contemplate the possibility that there is no US.

There's stock market bros, kill people bros, government welfare bros and some mega business bros.

None of them want to know anything beyond my kids go to private school, get nepo baby job.

This is what humans are capable of - not just in USA, as a species. USA's 'plan' or rather inevitability is to fall apart. China will be the next power and it'll also fall apart, like USSR fell apart and USA is falling apart for the world to see.

Maybe in another few thousand years it'll be different, I doubt it. Read Plato's Republic you're above 140 IQ - it spells it all out so nicely that one you grok it, you need not know much of anything else regarding politics.

Too bad it’s not true. China has wanted this for a long long time. They view their relative weakness vs the West as humiliating and temporary, and want to correct that by any means available.

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