Hacker News Reader

Comment by thomassmith65 | Hacker News Reader

  For all these reasons a vocal minority of analysts say that 2026 will be a year of strong economic growth

Right, a vocal minority. That is less surprising considering:

• the USD is plummeting

• America's trading partners are frantically looking to foster trade with more reliable partners

• Fed policy and American economic data are becoming unreliable due to political pressure

• a handful of AI companies, with questionable longevity, are driving most of the stock market's growth

We should append "say minority of analysts" to the title

View on HN

If you want to reduce imports and boost exports a plummeting USD is what you want. Why do you think China manipulates its currency to keep it weak.

Who are these more reliable trading partners you are talking about ?

Fed does not seem to do what Trump wants.

It's all the markets NASDAQ, DOW, S&P 500, most of the big AI stuff is privately held investments with the exception of Google and Nvidia.

> If you want to reduce imports and boost exports a plummeting USD is what you want. Why do you think China manipulates its currency to keep it weak.

Where are all these exports going? It feels like there is very limited amount of buyers who can actually afford Made in USA.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports-by-countr...

Mostly to Canada and Mexico (close to 1/3), then to China, EU, Japan, ...

I don't think those figures are entirely relevant anymore, since they're all pre-trade war. Factories are pausing operations due to the decline in export sales.

  If you want to reduce imports and boost exports a plummeting USD is what you want.

Yes, that is an advantage... of people losing faith in your government and currency.

  Who are these more reliable trading partners you are talking about ?

The regions of note are Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU. Probably most nations. Think back to Trump's 'Liberation Day'... who wants to deal with that kind of... diplomacy?

  Fed does not seem to do what Trump wants.

Powell does as much of what Trump wants as he can without looking like a clown (and maybe for that reluctance, has stepped down).

  AI stuff is privately held investments with the exception of Google and Nvidia

Wall Street considers Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Meta, Nvidia, Palantir - even Apple - to be AI plays now. Those companies have private equity in Open AI, Anthropic, etc.

Edit: I misunderstood this question:

  Who are these more reliable trading partners you are talking about ?

It probably is from the POV of America's partners. Rather than list them myself, here's a short Reuters article outlining some:

https://reuters.com/world/china/global-race-free-trade-agree...

Reply on news.ycombinator.com