It seems like it's approaching a horizontal asymptote to me, or is at the very least concave down. You might be describing a state 50 years from now.
ARC AGI 2: https://x.com/poetiq_ai/status/2003546910427361402
METR: https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-com...
The knowledge necessary to do real work with these things is still mostly locked up in the humans that have traditionally done that work.
I’m thinking 5 years at most.
The key is that the LLMs get smart enough.
I use LLMs to generate systems that interpret code that I use to express my wishes, but I don't think is would be desirable to express those wishes in natural language all of the time.
Copilot + Sonnet is a complete idiot at times, while Claude Code + Sonnet is pretty good.