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Comment by nbardy | Hacker News Reader

You haven’t actually looked at their fundamentals. They’re profitable serving current models including training costs and are only losing money on future RD training, but if you project future revenue growth on future generations of models you get a clear path to profitability.

They charge higher costs than OpenAI and have faster growing API demand. They have great margins compared to the rest of the industry on inference.

Sure the revenue growth could stop but it hasn’t and there is no reason to think it will.

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> They’re profitable serving current models including training costs

I hear this a lot, do you have a good source (apart from their CEO saying it in an interview). I might have more faith in him but checks notes, it's late 2025 and AI is not writing all our code yet (amongst other mental things he's said).

The best I kind is this tech crunch article, which appears to be referencing an article from the information that is pay walled.

> The Information reports that Anthropic expects to generate as much as $70 billion in revenue and $17 billion in cash flow in 2028. The growth projections are fueled by rapid adoption of Anthropic’s business products, a person with knowledge of the company’s financials said.

> That said, the company expects its gross profit margin — which measures a company’s profitability after accounting for direct costs associated with producing goods and services — to reach 50% this year and 77% in 2028, up from negative 94% last year, per The Information.

https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/04/anthropic-expects-b2b-dema...

So assuming that the gross margin is GAAP (which it probably isn't), then this would suggest that the costs of training are covered by inference sales this year (which is definitely good).

However, I'm still a little sceptical around this as the cost to train new models is going up super-linearly (apparently) which means that the revenue from inference needs to also go up along side this.

Interesting to think about though, thanks for the source!

We will all have a great source if they IPO :)

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