What do I do with the cash?
A) keep it as cash
B) Pay off the mortgage
C) Buy some QQQ
D) Buy some T-notes
E) there is no E. I am a simple man. Let's start with a simple solution.
- You will sleep 5% better every night from here on out if your mortgage is paid off
- You'll sleep 5% worse every night from here on out if you have 300k riding in the markets
A - Never. Cash with no return is just decaying with inflation.
B - Depends on interest. If your mortgage interest is lower than no-risk interest (e.g. SGOV) then no, you'd be throwing money away by paying off the mortgage. If OTOH your mortgage interest is substantially higher than no-risk interest, then yes, paying it off (or at least overpaying monthly) is a good idea. There is a gray area if your mortgage interest is slightly higher than no-risk return right now. Numerically it makes sense to pay the mortgage, but there is also a safety aspect in keeping the liquid cash on hand.
So that leaves some combination of C & D. The best ratio there is a harder question to answer.
I'm a simple man myself, so I'm answering in order to verify my own reasoning.
A. will have negative returns from inflation. D. defends against inflation but is too conservative. B. There's arguably negative value in holding more equity in terms of opportunity cost since you already have > 200% position in equity. source: I believe this guy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4H9LL7A-nQ
Trading yourself is just not worth it. You'll lose money long-term. An exception here is if you want to hold shares of a company long-term as a form of investment.
If your mortgage is a fixed rate at a reasonable interest, then keep it. If there's a high inflation episode, you'll be able to benefit from it.
If cash remaining -> if mortgage rate >4% pay down mortgage (locking in 4%+ yield). If you want to average 50% towards mortgage 50% VOO (S&P Index fund)
Deeper post ->https://monetarymusings.substack.com/p/how-to-not-blow-up-wh...
>The real insight: paying down your mortgage reduces your monthly burn, which reduces the chance you’ll need to sell stocks in a downturn. It’s not about math, it’s about resilience.
This seems more emotional than anything. The feeling of paying off a mortgage and being relieved of some monthly burden. But there will always be monthly burdens, that's life. Everyone needs monthly cashflow. So the insight of putting extra cashflow into a mortgage to offset the burden is just reversing the purpose of why you got the mortgage in the first place? What I mean is money has time value, a mortgage is paying for the time. So being in a hurry doesn't automatically insightfully make sense.
The post is all about resilience, I suppose my point is that there will always be a need for monthly costs, so trying to be free of the stress of a monthly cost -a time cost- is overly emotional in my view.
If I have $300K on my mortgage and a monthly payment of $2000, and I pay an extra $100K, that 100K reduces the principal of the mortgage by $100K, and so the mortgage will run for several years less than it would have. But my monthly payment is still $2000 for the years I have left on it.
There are other ways to structure it - you can pay ahead, paying next month's payment this month so that you don't have to pay anything next month if you don't want to. Can you pay $100K so that you don't have to pay the next 50 months' payments? I don't know, but probably. You have to be clear with them what you are trying to do, though.
Locking in 4% AFTER TAX yield ... if you invest the $300K and it earns 4% you still can't pay the mortgage interest with those funds
So that 300,000 is the money you need to passively support your house after you've paid it off.
The practice part is important but when you are comfortable, nibble a little with small amounts.
(Note: I ended up breaking my rule by continuing to trade after losing $5000, but then did great in the markets anyway in the long run LOL)
With the rest, I would put some in a vanguard account. And then invest where? I want to say index funds but the market is very strange. The biggest companies have too much wealth soaked up. Is this sustainable? Is this a bubble? Who knows...
All these will influence your EV.
For an internet forum, I've found it easier to ask direct, actionable questions like "should I buy this couch" than "is [couch brand] good?". Even if what I really wanted to get at was the former. Maybe the brand isnt good but the price is a steal. Maybe the brand is so utterly trash that you couldn't give it away. But putting the brand into the question instead of a direct 'thing' changes the discourse.