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I think the assumption that Valve would choose user protection over getting games to work is flawed, they want openness where possible because they see it as a competitive advantage. With VAC they clearly think that maximally invasive anti-cheat isn't necessary so maybe they'll try to push providers in that direction?

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Valve thinks it's not necessary and it's still in the air if it really isn't.

They have bet on the behavioral analysis anti-cheat horse but it hasn't won any races yet.

Moreover, they've proven that it's certainty more difficult to get it working than regular old fuck-the-end-user anti cheat.

Lastly, don't assume that the success of the platform will persuade these companies. They were already firmly un-persuaded when the steam deck got popular. And really, I think the popularity of a platform depends on the support of these companies more than the support of these companies depends on the popularity of a platform.

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