(I think there's no reasonable definition of intelligence under which LLMs don't possess some, setting aside arguments about quantity. Whether they have or in principle could have any form of consciousness is much more mysterious -- how would we tell?)
We can simulate weather (poorly) without modeling every hydrogen atom interaction.
The weather example is a good one: you can run a program that simulates the weather in the same way my program above (and LLMs in general) simulate consciousness, but no one would say the program is _causing_ weather in any sense.
Of course, it's entirely possible that more and more people will be convinced AI is generating consciousness, especially when tricks like voice or video chat with the models are employed, but that doesn't mean that the machine is actually conscious in the same way a human body empirically already is.
Does it matter? Is a dog/cow/bird/lizard conscious in the same way a human is? We're built from the same basic parts, and yet humans seem to have a higher state of consciousness than other animals around us.
For example the definition of the word conscious is
>aware of and responding to one's surroundings; awake.
I'll give that we likely mean this in a general sense, but I'd say we're pretty close to this with machines. They can observe the real world with sensors of different types, and then either directly compute, or use neural nets to make generalized decisions on what is occurring around them, then proceed to act on those observations.
(Not my original quote, but can't remember right now where I read it.)
It's similar asking about whether silicon computers performing intelligent tasks is "conscious".
You have weather readouts. One set is from a weather simulation - a simulated planet with simulated climate. Another is real recordings from the same place at the same planet, taken by real weather monitoring probes. They have the same starting point, but diverge over time.
Which one is real though? Would you be able tell?
The question is can you tell the difference between the rain you see outside your window, and some representation of a simulated environment where the computer says "It's raining here in this simulated environment". The implied answer is of course, one is water falling from the sky and one is a machine.
Lets say you're in a room a good distance from the window. Suddenly you hear what sounds like thunder and rain falling. From a distance it appears that it's raining outside.
Is the rain real? Or is it simulated on a screen well enough you can't tell?
You have input output devices just like a computer. They don't see reality, they filter out huge amounts of data and your brain just interprets it. If our machines get good enough we may be able to blast signals directly to the brain that say it's raining and the brain wouldn't have any idea if it was simulated or not. Much in the same way it feels like we exist and not a 3d hologram an infinite distance away (or whatever other weirdness physics may or could do).
The question is so-called consciousness arising out of machines, not machines deceiving human consciousness.
Even then, that deception still doesn't prove equivalency of simulated and real things, unless we're adopting an extreme and self-contradictory subjectivist epistemology.
Where does a running video game exist? It's a simulation in the hardware. Where is the consciousness in a human brain, again it's electrical signals in our brain.
At the end of the day a system is what it does. Once it starts simulating the human mind in ways that appear human then we're at the point of saying a plane has to flap its wings or it's not flying.
A human brain is a big pile of jellied meat spread. An LLM is a big pile of weights strung together by matrix math. Neither looks "intelligent". Neither is interpretable. The most reliable way we have to compare the two is by comparing the outputs.
You can't drill a hole in one of those and see something that makes you go "oh, it's this one, this one is the Real Intelligence, the other is fake". No easy out for you. You'll have to do it the hard way.
The difference between those two things (water and a computer) is plain, unless we want to depart into the territory of questioning whether that perception is accurate (after all, what "output" led us to believe that "jellied meat spread" can really "perceive" anything?), but then "the output" ceases to be any kind of meaningful measure at all.
But it could be more powerful than us.