That's what I'm most curious about -- how do you see that it hasn't arrived yet when you're looking at SWPC?

Here is the SWPC forecast [0]

Time_UTC,Nov_12,Nov_13,Nov_14

00-03UT,8.67 (G4),6.67 (G3),4.67 (G1)

03-06UT,8.33 (G4),6.33 (G2),4.00

06-09UT,7.00 (G3),6.00 (G2),3.33

09-12UT,7.00 (G3),4.67 (G1),3.67

12-15UT,6.00 (G2),4.00,3.33

15-18UT,5.67 (G2),3.33,3.00

18-21UT,7.67 (G4),4.33,3.00

21-00UT,6.00 (G2),4.67 (G1),3.33

So I guess 18-21UTC today it'll get around 7.7kP, but that's lower than what hit this morning, when I'd expect X5.1 to be larger? Is that how I should interpret this?

[0] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusia...