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Comment by slg | Hacker News Reader

I know many of the people reading this will think I'm being hysterical. But there was a small voice in the back of my mind when the shutdown started wondering whether that version of the American government would ever reopen and that voice has started to become much louder in recent days. Specifically the combination of this, the handling of SNAP benefits, and this all happening in November just seems intentionally designed to cause unrest. Families going hungry and/or unable to fly to spend Thanksgiving together feels like a perfectly orchestrated way to cause mass civil unrest that an authoritarian could use to seize power.

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The sooner things become intolerably broken in the U.S. the better off I think the rest of the world is. The U.S. kind of scares me right now. So much power, wielded by deeply incompetent, broken, and evil people. And those who aren't those things are demonstrably too weak to do anything about it. I have a sense that things will only improve once they hit an intolerable low. And the longer it takes for that to happen, the more normalized it will become for all of those people. Basically: I really hope the current regime boils the water too fast.

I can't deny that and maybe would even agree with that as an abstract theory, but I just can't stomach the amount of misery and death that would come along with this to ever use a word like "hope" to describe that outcome.

I don’t know if it’s reasonable or not to wish that, as an analogy, the German people had started a true civil war with the Nazis when they seized power. I can see how folks would wonder though.

Germany was not the hub of the world back then. Very different situations.

Yes, that is what an analogy is...

> A similarity in some respects between things that are otherwise dissimilar. A comparison based on such similarity.

A major part of the plot of The Every[0] is one protagonist's belief, akin to yours, that precipitating things to their worst outcome could be the fastest way to snap public opinion back to sanity.

I don't want to spoil the suspense, but I'll say that I do see the logic in hoping that a quick fire would call everyone's attention to the fire hazard. What you're failing to ask here is "What could possibly go wrong with this plan?"

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Every

The house is already on fire. The choices are to allow it to burn down and rebuild, taking the arsonists with it, or attempting to slow them down while the fire continues to burn and their supporters cheer them on.

American Democracy appears to be the same as second generation wealth: unappreciated until gone. Make Functional Governance Great Again. I wish it were not so.

Hahahahahahahhaa the arsonists aren’t going down with it, the arsonists are on mansions in a private island watching it go down. The idea that the people in power will _lose_ power as a result of widespread unrest is bananas. The only people watching the house burn are those with an insurance policy out on it.

The supporters are the people who keep voting Republican while Republicans (the arsonists) are stripping them of their SNAP benefits and ACA subsidies, while also dismantling the federal government out of ideology. The wealthy might influence (they spent over $40M to influence the NYC mayor election and still lost, for example), but the voters are the root cause.

It's quite literally a cult now. It doesn't matter if the house burns down, they'd still rather die in the fire than let woke liberals "win".

If the house burns down, we'll be both poor and surrounded (and led) by neo-Nazis.

I get the reasoning and I think it’s colourable. But I can’t help but be irritated having grown up hearing nothing but “Liberty or death” rhetoric of American identity, only to find it was all a pathetic cosplay.

The fact that liberty died far before Trump was part of what he used in his cards to gain power. He sold a tale of draining the swamp, and tailoring back the federal of government. Of course, he's basically expanded the more dystopian power, and pumped in more swamp water, but part of the reason why his campaign is successful was that indeed liberty has been lacking in the USA for a long time and to some of the people that actually cared, he whispered the right lies.

"Liberty or death" never meant the first resort is detonating a proverbial nuke in Manhattan if a bad guy showed up in Time's Square.

But I agree that it's always been a pathetic cosplay. Most "patriots" I've met are by far the least patriotic and actively hate their fellow countrymen.

> the arsonists are on mansions in a private island watching it go down. The idea that the people in power will _lose_ power as a result of widespread unrest is bananas.

Islands do make easy targets, though—they’re hard to move and they’re hard to hide.

Easy targets to whom?

The imaginary people with the power to go take a private island in this fantasy scenario are the same people with the existing power to be on one.

How are you planning to go storm those beaches?

> Easy targets to whom?

Anybody with a $200 drone and a chip on their shoulder. All I’m saying is: if there is widespread civil unrest, billionaires are going to find themselves with giant targets on their backs.

When my brother and I argue this, that’s the position he takes: the risk is enormous. He’s the most brilliant mind I know (an immigration lawyer who has settled the Government’s hash more than once at the Supreme Court of Canada), so if I had any real say in all this, I would defer to him.

This is, uh, not usually how these things work out, historically speaking.

A desperate country with an extremely strong military is not a great situation for anyone.

The hope is presumably that the water boils fast enough to prompt electoral action before this regime eliminates voting rights and inevitably embroils itself in war to distract from its failings at home.

I suppose we'll find out in the next 361 days?

I completely agree. It's a good thing we're in a multipolar world now. The US (and its vassal states) have ruled terribly and the world suffered much over it. Sadly, there is still a lot of propaganda that needs to go away. A great world leader would spread genuine peace. Not corrupt other countries, start wars and shed blood. The USA has failed to even keep its own citizens safe and secure. All I worry about is that they will drag a lot of other countries with them while they are falling.

Less and less likely they’ll drag others down, the first trump presidency was a warning, it’s gonna suck in the rest of the western world but we’ll survive.

So how can you completely agree if even you worry?

I worry more. I am certain, for all bad things the US did, the multipolar world will be much much worse. You think the other power players are better? No way.

The US hasn't been perfect, but you can hardly say we've ruled the world terribly. Because who has ever ruled it better?

We helped Europe and Asia rebuild after WWII instead of conquering them. To the extent that our previous enemies in Germany and Japan now have some of the strongest economies in the world.

There have certainly been wars, often with dubious justification or horrific results, but good luck finding any superpower in history that hasn't gotten into bad wars. Unlike the US, most of the time those other superpowers used war for territorial expansion, like Russia is doing in Ukraine today.

You can dream of your utopian world order all you want, but at some point you have to judge the US against the alternative instead of the almighty.

> but you can hardly say we've ruled the world terribly.

"Terribly" is definitely a fair assessment.

> who has ever ruled it better?

Blatant whataboutism.

> instead of conquering them

"I protected them in so many ways, cared for them as if they were my own children. But to this day, is there a single statue of me on Bajor?"

I love the DS9 reference. But it also reminds me of Hamilton:

    You'll be back, time will tell
    You'll remember that I served you well
    Oceans rise, empires fall
    We have seen each other through it all
    And when push comes to shove
    I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love!

The idea that the world was better off under American rule is so deeply ironic that my brain is breaking.

What you call whataboutism, I call comparative evaluation.

On an absolute scale, every world power in history and humanity in general has been terrible. Endless injustices and atrocities since the very start.

That’s just not a very useful way to look at things though.

Europe has certainly had its share of deeply incompetent, broken, and evil people. So, so many. Such profound impact.

I think any country will see this, despite all the wishing in the world.

Historically low points are when very bad regimes seize full control.

That this is happening is an indication that power has been seized already.

What do you think their goals with the power are? To make your life miserable? No, clearly, all they care about is the wealth and it's profits. Which they're already swallowing whole.

You _already_ live in their prison.

One side abhors "the government" and actively took an axe to the agencies and programs that the other side cared about. The result is that neither party have any sort of active investment in the current status quo.

For me, I wonder if Congress will ever reopen. I wonder if the trench warfare in Congress has gone so far that it will destroy itself rather than compromise.

Maybe.

But having 10%+ of all Americans panicking after missing a few meals is also enough to topple a country. There’s not a whole lot that can unify the different political factions of the US, but going hungry gets people focused on necessity and to deprioritize the shallow / vapid aspects of politics.

Arguably it’s China’s governing body’s biggest single fear.

I currently think this government shutdown is unlikely to do that to the US because politicians have had lots of practice making each shutdown less impactful for most Americans, but the longer we go, the more likely we are to find some high value thing the US government does that Americans don’t want to live without.

> Arguably it’s China’s governing body’s biggest single fear.

Why China's? What you said is true in any corner of the globe.

China is the world’s most populous country with an autonomous governing body that doesn’t always respond to the voice of the people. And their leadership knows that multiple previous Chinese governments were toppled after the people were famished.

> Chinese governments were toppled after the people were famished

In imperial china it's a cultural/religious thing.

Famines always represented a sign that the ruling party wasn't wanted "by the skies" anymore.

In any case, ain't nobody ever gonna starve in modern china.

I can't see any rational politician letting this go beyond another two weeks. I can't imagine keeping people away from their families over Thanksgiving is gonna work out well for anyone.

But then, maybe they're not rational.

I argue that politicians are absolutely rational. I frequently argue that even the dictator of N Korea acts rationally, only by very different rules than we are used to thinking about. Generally I reserve “irrational” to people who are functionally/mentally disabled, severely traumatized, or acting under the influence of mind altering substances (eg. RFK’s drugs history + trauma of 2 men in his life being assassinated during his formative years).

They are acting according to the expected responses to the stimuli they create. The problem is that the culture, society, previous legislation/jurisprudence, and the parliamentary rules they voted in all make the calculus of predicting what is rational for them uncertain.

That’s MAGA for you.

Well, there's one critical flaw which is that Trump is also fucking up with the military. A lot of military members are going unpaid, and many more are going unpaid and their family isn't receiving snap benefits. An authoritarian trying to seize power without the backing of the military is bound to lead to failure, and even though money is being funneled into ICE enmasse they're an untrained legion of goons with little access or ability to use actual military equipment.

If push comes to shove we're not going to get an authoritarian takeover, we're going to get a military coup. Unless they wake up and realize they need the guys with the hardware to do their whole fascist takeover thing.

ICE is being paid

ICE is effectively just a government-paid gang designed to harass immigrants and any citizen they think is a bit too uppity. They don't have any actual power to do things like holding down a city or enforcing martial law without the aid of the actual military or national guard. They have guns but not THE guns.

A bigger budget can fix that.

They raided a building in Chicago with a Blackhawk helicopter

Didn’t they illegally take funds from the CIA to pay the military and ICE?

It seems to me like this is ideal for them. They break the law to pay for the stuff they want, let everything else rot. Why the Democrats have allowed this is beyond me.

> Why the Democrats have allowed this is beyond me.

Republicans control all three branches of government. What can Democrats do except filibuster and budgetary maneuvers like they're already doing?

Democrats already tried (briefly) going along with the inhumane BBB and Republicans kept cutting and disregarding the law anyway.

Democrats should be counter-messaging every hours of every day, on all media, to create actual dissent within the electorate. They're acting like they can't do anything but watch idly. It's insane that with all that happened, Trump still sits at ~40% popularity. Americans won't realize how shitty the situation is until you tell them, and make sure to blame Trump and the GOP every step of the process.

Insurance premiums on the rise? Thank Trump for that. No planes for Thanksgiving? Blame Vance. Etc.

Democratic representatives are speaking out almost daily. Voters are protesting in force at least monthly.

Yet too many live in filter bubbles and take the talking points they're given. My conservative parents sound very reasonable when they react to unfiltered news, at least in the moment. But then the talking points arrive and they down play or change their outlook completely. It's like a Borg mind which sometimes has high latency.

And I can relate. I lived with that mindset. Teaching myself to twist information to fit the worldview and compartmentalize to dodge the dissonance. Visiting only the safe outlets who would reinforce the comfortable and familiar perspective. Thankfully public schools, the Internet, patient coworkers, and curiosity popped my bubble.

So because the democrats have no power except to make things worse, that’s what they should do?

They have publicly said that the only thing they are negotiating for is one more year of health care subsidies. That’s a noble goal, but the country voted, and they don’t want affordable healthcare. If the Democrats ever have power again, then they can make policy again as well.

> ...the country voted, and they don’t want affordable healthcare.

Can we say those voting for Trump in 2024 were saying they don't want affordable healthcare? There were many issues on the table and it wasn't a landslide.

Repealing Obamacare has been a _very explicit_ policy position of the Republican party for over a decade. They spent the entire last election telling anyone who would listen exactly what they would do, and now they are doing it. Yes, elections matter, and they have consequences. The midterm elections are in one year. That's the next chance the electorate has to change their mind.

The thing is, the last time the Republicans shut down the government for whatever pet project it was they wanted, I was furious. They lost the last election, yet they were trying to jam their agenda into law anyway through, essentially, blackmail. I'm not so hypocritical that I would be okay with it now because it's "my side". My side is functioning democracy at this point, and that's what the Democrats are risking with this shutdown.

> My side is functioning democracy at this point, and that's what the Democrats are risking with this shutdown.

Which side is yours? Hopefully not the side fighting in n court to take back SNAP benefits already distributed to needy families.

How are the Democrats putting democracy at risk when they cannot control any branch of government? And all their attempts to appease Republicans end up with Republicans pushing further anyway?

Turn on the news. The party agrees with me. I’ve been saying it since this folly was started, but they finally realized that you can’t negotiate with someone when your threat is their ideal outcome.

They want flights cancelled. They want people to starve. They want the FDA and the CDC shut down. They want chaos. More chaos is more excuse to take more control. It’s the classic fascist playbook. See : Reichstag fire.

People who support the guy aren't rational. He could personally take their every cent, say they're lucky that's all he did, and he wouldn't lose a single supporter. If the military went unpaid for half a year, all his supporters in the military would shift the blame to someone else.

But it’s totally not a cult, no. Just a party, taking care of you. You love the party. The party loves you.

The Republicans have tried to pay the military, the Democrats blocked it.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/07/politics/shutdown-congress-fe...

Two weeks ago, the German state funded publisher Deutsche Welle published a video making a case about the possibility of Donald Trump actually being a Russian asset: https://youtu.be/JmEtx-EmYtc

I would be speechless if a conspiracy theory comes true, and the American state is actually captured by the Russians. Don’t get me wrong. I don’t wish it, but as a fan of the series The Americans, it will be epic..

Nah, he's swung back and forth on Ukraine at least 4 times now. Russia certainly did help Trump get the White House, what with the propaganda and all, as they correctly foresaw how terrible he would be for the American Empire. But he does not receive his orders from Putin, that's ridiculous. He's just cruel and stupid.

Agreed, but bluntly: what's the effective difference for Russia? They can't give direct orders, but they also don't have the rest of the world calling foul [about an illegitimate American leader, as we ignore Ukraine for a moment].

I'd say Trump not being an explicit asset gets them 90% of what they're after, with almost no downsides

Yes, exactly. I second this. Time to repeal the president before this gets terrible.

The process of repealing a president (impeachment) is a political process. Republicans could do it at any moment, so every day they don't is an endorsement of what the president has done, continues to do, and even what he threatens to do.

Repealing a dictator is extralegal.

This country is founded on the principle of being able to spot the pretexts (tariffs, terror-driven deportation, selective refugee status of whites fleeing black majorities, dissolving of social nets, rampant corruption) to monarchy-authoritarian leadership.

It will happen all over again here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Declaration_of_I...

We're all migrants here, we're really the enforced guests of Native Americans whose land we occupy.

The current DNC is waaay too weak and uninterested in pushing back against Trump for this to realistically happen. They are complete enablers of this slow fascist takeover. Your only hope now is for the democrats to experience a "tea party" of their own, and have actual leftists take the reins before 2028. Seems highly unlikely now.

It’ll be extralegal, think non linear/chaos.

I don't buy it for few reasons.

1. The budget doesn't include some insane, unvotable measure. I don't hold any sympathy for either of the parties, but as an external it seems that the majority and the president have been voted on top of repealing the affordable care act and the opposition is weaponizing the budget on topics that voters have already expressed themselves against.

2. Being unable to spend or spend vacations with family are not things that historically lead to unrests.

So imho, no, Occam's razor suggests me this is simply business as usual, but with the usual increasing polarization and extremism we're seeing all around the world.

>voted on top of repealing the affordable care act

Its much more stupid than this. People voted MAGA to get rid of Obamacare, but same dont even realize it IS the ACA. Jimmy Kimmel Live did whole bit around that in 2017 and it still holds true today.

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