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Comment by Havoc | Hacker News Reader

Meta is cooked. It's not just scam portion - their entire strategy is in trouble

FB - nobody I know actively uses it anymore.

Insta - is being overrun with AI slop and given meta's stated goal of adding more AI interactions on their platforms I doubt they'll even try to get a grip on it let alone succeed

Whatsapp & FB messenger - some use but has zero moat over other messengers. It's a completely fungible service in a space that has fractured across many providers.

VR/meta/AI/etc - they keep trying. Maybe one day

...that leaves their adtech which only works due to their invasive tracking...that is directly dependent on their other properties succeeding: Their targeting edge comes directly from front row seats tracking users behaviour on their platforms. No users, no insights.

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Disagree on WhatsApp, it’s the de facto standard messaging app outside the US.

> it’s the de facto standard messaging app outside the US.

Agreed and in combination with FB messenger they've got most of the market...but what of it?

They're literally competing against a donation supported app. Pause for a second and think about what that says about how little direct money there is in the space.

Plus it's E2E encrypted & has significant user privacy expectations so significant limitations on how you can leverage it for their adtech biz

I'm not saying whatsapp is dead or a failure as a messenger. It's a great addition to round out an ecosystem but don't think it's any good as the primary load bearing pillar of a 1.5 trillion company in the same way search is for google

Yeah, Whatsapp is probably the largest moat in the world atm.

I hear this on almost every bad post about Meta. No they are not cooked. They still generate tons of profit and their user base is one of the biggest in the world. They're not going anywhere any time soon.

Just because they generate tons of profit doesn’t mean they are not vulnerable. Tiktok has shown that their position is not as solid like some here tend to believe.

Blackberry made their best profits in 2008, a year after the iPhone was released, with a stock price of around $140 in May of 2008, their all time high. By December of 2008, their stock price was $30, by 2012 -- $7. That FB are making a ton of profit right now is nothing but inertia.

A current big user base is not enough on a „line must go up“ world

Is anyone actually buying and using their glasses? I've tried to find actual sales figures but they keep it very opaque. I am so curious if despite how hard they are pushing them they will just be another flash-in-the-pan. I just can't see wide-market adoptability, maybe some niche users, but maybe I am just a hater/cynic.

The will just buy their next move. You're not cooked when you're a trillionaire; you never are or will be.*

*Unless you steal from other wealthy folks.

I was thinking that for the last 7 years and every year they grow revenue massively. I don’t get it.

my aunt/uncle etc., who must certainly still use FB, just discovered Reels. I know this because they now send me 10 a day. and last year was the first time i heard them talking about finding christmas gifts advertised on FB, so i don’t think they are cooked yet.

FB and google are both basically doomed, IMO.

You're using anecdata to decide if a company with billions of users is viable? Literal nonsense.

I hate Meta, but their ad business is still doing well and WhatsApp is the core of Indian society.

AOL, Yahoo, and Tumblr still operate. Meta won't be dead in our lifetimes.

> AOL, Yahoo, and Tumblr still operate.

As empty shells of what they once were.

I've no doubt there'll be something at Facebook.com in ten years. But if it looks like your three examples, that's not a success.

Unless it gets broken up, I'd wager Meta will continue buying competitors and have a market cap above $1T in 10 years.

Facebook appeared cooked after the parents of the original user base started using it (boomers). But it seems like that’s profitable because they are so dumb

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