What do you think Musk is trying to do here? His purpose is not coolly to assess the probability of a certain outcome (nobody asked him to do that!) but rather to make that outcome more probable.
Elon doesn't profit from chaos, he is just using psychological manipulation to empower his allies.
Yes that will act to consolidate a voting bloc for Musk's allies. If it were additionally to cause chaos that would be a bonus. Right-wingers in the US love nothing more than to point to a situation in a foreign country as a warning of the perils of leftism. Usually they just make shit up but of course it's better not to have to.