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Comment by mytailorisrich | Hacker News Reader

Sometimes what people predict is referred to as "nonsense" because they manage to infer things based on trends over a longer term than others who can only see what's right in front of them.

In this case, Musk (and many others) only extrapolate the trends at play for 50+ years to their logical conclusion, and actually I'd say that denying this it's becoming more and more a case of ostrich syndrome.

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> Sometimes what people predict is referred to as "nonsense" because they manage to infer things based on trends over a longer term than others

Or it's just wishful thinking. Musk's comments generally suggest he has no idea about the UK.

> Or it's just wishful thinking. Musk's comments generally suggest he has no idea about the UK.

Like a lot of Americans (and, unfortunately, quite a lot of British people) he assumes the UK is far more similar to the US than it really is.

What do you think Musk is trying to do here? His purpose is not coolly to assess the probability of a certain outcome (nobody asked him to do that!) but rather to make that outcome more probable.

Imho it is more likely that he is using it to consolidate a voting bloc. Much like how all the partisan propaganda in the US of civil war convinced right wingers to rally around Trump and left wingers to not take it seriously. If you think that they will try to overthrow your way of life, you'll simultaneously announce you are prepared to defend yourself and - more importantly - you'll vote for whatever resembles your way of life.

Elon doesn't profit from chaos, he is just using psychological manipulation to empower his allies.

In the UK at least, talk of civil war by right-wingers is intended not to put fear into their friends but to excite them. As they envisage, it's they who will be starting it.

Yes that will act to consolidate a voting bloc for Musk's allies. If it were additionally to cause chaos that would be a bonus. Right-wingers in the US love nothing more than to point to a situation in a foreign country as a warning of the perils of leftism. Usually they just make shit up but of course it's better not to have to.

If they're so terrified of being "replaced," maybe white supremacists should try having more kids instead of inciting race wars.

I'm not saying you're always wrong in the abstract "sometimes" that you pose. But I stand what I said about Mr Musk specifically in this case.

Well, you also qualify your "nonsense" claim by "currently". This is the point, IMHO. No-one claims that civil war is imminent but it does look inevitable if the trends at play keep their trajectories.

> but it does look inevitable if the trends at play keep their trajectories.

I think this too is utter nonsense. Too much of the twitter brainrot.

But it does highlight the dangers that this poses, that people can easily fall into it as you have done. So, Mr Musk's incitement is a danger to you and others. Even if the "civil war" remains someone's fantasy.

> n this case, Musk (and many others) only extrapolate the trends at play for 50+ years to their logical conclusion

What 50+ year trends? Less racism?

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