GDP is still dropping. We just had our third consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth.
Edit: I can't find evidence that this is true, and I think I might have been tricked. But growth is at best quite anemic. See longer comment below.
Edit: I can't find evidence that this is true, and I think I might have been tricked. But growth is at best quite anemic. See longer comment below.
Two economists are walking in a forest when they come across a pile of shit.
The first economist says to the other “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The second economist takes the $100 and eats the pile of shit.
They continue walking until they come across a second pile of shit. The second economist turns to the first and says “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The first economist takes the $100 and eats a pile of shit.
Walking a little more, the first economist looks at the second and says, "You know, I gave you $100 to eat shit, then you gave me back the same $100 to eat shit. I can't help but feel like we both just ate shit for nothing."
"That's not true", responded the second economist. "We increased the GDP by $200!"
This sounds like a Russian joke, and like many Russian jokes, it contains a great deal of truth.
However, I may have been tricked. https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/pib_09_250... says the official statistic is that the de-seasonalized GDP grew 0.9% in the first quarter and fell 0.1% in the second quarter, so even if the third quarter is down (the official statistics aren't out yet) it's only the second consecutive quarter of negative growth on a cyclically adjusted basis.
I can't find the non-cyclically-adjusted data.
0.8% growth for the first half of the year is very far from "rebound[ing] pretty spectacularly" but it's no recession. But it all depends on whether the 3Q results are -0.9% or +0.9%. Maybe they'll release the report now that the election is over.
Articles like https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/09/17/la-probabilidad-... are about near-future predictions, not established facts.
For the very simple reasons I explained in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45719672 it looks to me like Milei is further hollowing out the Argentine economy. I'm no professor of economics, so my understanding of these issues is highly oversimplified, so I could be wrong.