I tried to raise this question yesterday. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45683113#45687769
Declaring victory on "reasoning" based on cherry-picking a correct result about arithmetic is, of course, very narrow and absurdly optimistic. Even if it correctly works for all NxM calculations. Moving on from arithmetic to any kind of problem that fundamentally reduces to model-checking behind the scenes.. we would be talking about exploring a state-space with potentially many thousands of state-transitions for simple stuff. If each one even has a small chance of crapping out due to hallucination, the chance of encountering errors at the macro-scale is going to be practically guaranteed.
Everyone will say, "but you want tool-use or code-gen for this anyway". Sure! But carry-digits or similar is just one version of "correct matters" and putting some non-local kinds of demands on attention, plus it's easier to check than code. So tool-use or code-gen is just pushing the same problem somewhere else to hide it.. there's still a lot of steps involved, and each one really has to be correct if the macro-layer is going to be correct and the whole thing is going to be hands-off / actually automated. Maybe that's why local-models can still barely handle nontrivial tool-calling.
Here we can see the amount of data a high end traditional non-SOC CPU holds:
> For a recent high-end non-SoC desktop CPU: > Cache: ~40-100 MB total (L1 + L2 + shared L3) > Register files: tens to few hundreds of KB total across cores (e.g., ~200-300 KB or so) > Combined: So you're looking at ~40-100 MB + ~0.2 MB → roughly ~40-100 MB of total on-chip caches + registers.
I'm sure we can reduce these caches to fit in the context windows of today's LLMs (~500,000 tokens).
Then, with temperature 0 we get more "discrete" operations. Now, we still have the rare problem of hallucinations, but it should be small with temperature 0.
And temperature 0 makes outputs deterministic, not magically correct.
For reasons I don't claim to really understand, I don't think it even makes them deterministic. Floating point something something? I'm not sure temperature even has a static technical definition or implementation everywhere at this point. I've been ignoring temperature and using nucleus sampling anywhere that's exposed and it seems to work better.
Random but typical example.. pydantic-ai has a caveat that doesn't reference any particular model: "Note that even with temperature of 0.0, the results will not be fully deterministic". And of course this is just the very bottom layer of model-config and in a system of diverse agents using different frameworks and models, it's even worse.
If an LLM were sufficiently trained to be able to roll-forward and correctly set the current state of some registers written into the conversation..? I wouldn't trust it though, leaves too much to chance.
I too make mistakes trying to keep track of things, I end up using tools too.
Your previous example shows the best case, which is a model can sometimes follow a textual recipe for long multiplication on short inputs. That's not the same as learning a length generalizing bit exact algorithm.
Basically what you shown is the model can describe the algorithm. It doesn't show it can execute it at scale. Without writable state and bit exact ops, errors grow with length and "focus more" only slows that failure, it doesn’t eliminate it.
Well, modern LLM coding agent products (eg. Claude Code) are able to store state in files in the current repository. So, you could have the model keep the "CPU State", and the files in the repository be the "RAM".
Also, could this https://arxiv.org/html/2402.17764v1 possibly reduce errors when doing inference? There is no floating point operations
The focus here is the LLM being able to do it unaided.
The space of all combinations of steps is so large for many problems that require precision and usually one incorrect step breaks everything. "I forgot to carry the 1".
Even then, while brilliant, Claude does screw up sometimes - we're not there yet but it doesn't prevent it from being adequately useful.