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Comment by DaveZale | Hacker News Reader

I use the Loud Muffler Index for judging the economy. Traffic gets louder when working people are under financial stress. It's easily measurable.

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I found the waiter/waitress quality model was pretty effective for judging the economy. If the economy was strong, the service would be worse, since the best people could get better jobs elsewhere. And if good people were having a hard time making ends meet, they would end up in the service industry displacing those that weren't good in their jobs.

You could probably come up with similar metrics on the number of dented cars you see in a day that people couldn't afford to repair.

Or the number of people who skip out on their checks at a restaurant. Or the number of people who buy lottery tickets. Or the number of people that are willing to gamble, not as entertainment, but as a way to get some money for the next bill due date.

that- that ppl go elsewhere- like with the aws rto demands- have serious repercussions, true

Disagree. Do you mean that vehicles gets louder because people skip maintenance? Or more stress produces more honking? An opposite effect: more financial stress means less spending on aftermarket exhaust mods means quieter traffic. Also, financial stress means less driving means less noise. Overall, I doubt you're going to find much signal in the noise!

Well, it is a perfect storm of factors. First of all lack of maintenance. Secondly, people gunning it with the gas pedal. Thirdly, lower income folks in a rush to get to a second or even third job, gunning it for reasons other than just sheer frustration.

In large parts of the country mufflers rust off periodically.

And people pay more taxes for the privilege (you don't think road salt is free do you?)

I have been noticing similar but not "loud muffler" so to speak but instead it is noticeable lacking maintenance on "mid-high" value cars.

There have been a lot of cars I consider "nice" but have squealing wheel bearings, squeaking brakes and/or engine tune issues which point to general lack of maintaining the vehicle.

Good to see I am not the only one seeing this warning sign.

I live next to a busy city road. The loudest vehicles are motorcycles, cars with expensive, aftermarket exhausts, and large trucks. Not all cheap stuff.

I wonder if there's a way you could directly correlate this to profits. Like if you could buy or short VOO or SPY or VTI based on muffler noise.

hehe good question. But I believe that we are addicted to AI hopium at the moment. You know the drill, circular financing a la Enron, smartest guys in the room stuff. Your intuition will play out but there may be a delayed effect. Seriously I owned TSLA stock for many years. It was boring and frustrating, and I sold. So the Muffler Noise Index may be predictive of what happens years from now ;-)

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