There’s a very big difference between a failed state and life slowly getting worse, institutional rotting, etc.
I really don’t foresee a scenario where America turns into Somalia or Haiti in the near future.
I really don’t foresee a scenario where America turns into Somalia or Haiti in the near future.
In this case, "going bankrupt" is the dissolution of the United States. We definitely won't be able to predict when it happens, and it may be unlikely, but IMO the likelihood of it happening ticks up the more I see how the federal government is attempting to crush dissent.
Not to mention completely apolitical things like the debt crisis, which will be unmanageable after a certain point. Our biggest line item in the budget is now paying interest on the debt. And we just passed the OBBB which increased deficit spending by $3.4T over ten years.
Would people today tolerate tyranny to avoid it?
The closest analog to an archetypical failed state in American history is probably the Bleeding Kansas situation:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bleeding_Kansas
Even then, today’s divisions in America are more urban-rural than geographically separated.
Any country can swiftly become a failed a state when ruled by someone idiotic enough. The question for the USA is whether or not it can survive the current pressures it faces. There a social, political, economic, and geopolitical pressures on the country at the same time. Thinking that the USA could become a failed state isn’t far fetched at all.
“Collapse happens slowly at first, and then all at once”
That isn't even remotely true, and if you think it is, I think you're in an extreme information bubble. The vast, vast majority of people are just going about their daily lives and in are in no way whatsoever thinking of half of the population as fascist or communist.