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Comment by hypeatei | Hacker News Reader

> And as chaotic and concerning as many political events may be, the idea that the US will become “a failed state” is pretty divorced from the actual reality

Becoming a failed state overnight? Probably not, I agree. Midterm elections are approaching and the federal government has already shown its willingness to deploy the military to big cities for intimidation purposes. Also don't forget: our current President also tried to prevent the peaceful transfer of power after the 2020 election. I feel like we get stuck in this "nothing ever happens" loop while our liberties slowly get stripped away and even after a thing happens, we delude ourselves by saying it won't actually get that bad. Frogs in a pot.

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There’s a very big difference between a failed state and life slowly getting worse, institutional rotting, etc.

I really don’t foresee a scenario where America turns into Somalia or Haiti in the near future.

There's a famous saying about going bankrupt: "How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly"

In this case, "going bankrupt" is the dissolution of the United States. We definitely won't be able to predict when it happens, and it may be unlikely, but IMO the likelihood of it happening ticks up the more I see how the federal government is attempting to crush dissent.

Not to mention completely apolitical things like the debt crisis, which will be unmanageable after a certain point. Our biggest line item in the budget is now paying interest on the debt. And we just passed the OBBB which increased deficit spending by $3.4T over ten years.

All of that could happen and the US still wouldn’t turn into a failed state. There are orders of magnitude more technology, intelligence, non-governmental organizations, cultural knowledge, etc. in the country than in places which became failed states.

In his 1st inaugural address, what do you suppose Lincoln meant by the government ceasing?

Would people today tolerate tyranny to avoid it?

The American civil war wasn’t a case of a failed state, it was a case of competing states. Very different situation from today.

The closest analog to an archetypical failed state in American history is probably the Bleeding Kansas situation:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bleeding_Kansas

Even then, today’s divisions in America are more urban-rural than geographically separated.

You answered a question I didn’t ask.

Nearly half of the country views the other almost half as fascist. The half viewed as fascist views the other as socialist/communist. The two have lost the ability to effectively communicate with one another. The spending on the military is bankrupting the country, and within a decade debt service will consume 100% of tax revenues. The monetary expansion is causing inflation, and lowering interest rates will worsen this. At the same time, idiotic trade policy levying tariffs is making things even more expensive. Rising political tension with a simultaneous diminution in economic conditions is the breeding ground for extremism. We already see the two halves struggling to get anything done in congress, so amelioration of these conditions is unlikely. How long does the most well armed society in history tolerate this?

Any country can swiftly become a failed a state when ruled by someone idiotic enough. The question for the USA is whether or not it can survive the current pressures it faces. There a social, political, economic, and geopolitical pressures on the country at the same time. Thinking that the USA could become a failed state isn’t far fetched at all.

“Collapse happens slowly at first, and then all at once”

Nearly half of the country views the other almost half as fascist. The half viewed as fascist views the other as socialist/communist

That isn't even remotely true, and if you think it is, I think you're in an extreme information bubble. The vast, vast majority of people are just going about their daily lives and in are in no way whatsoever thinking of half of the population as fascist or communist.

I think you’re confusing people being polite with people not having opinions.

> Midterm elections are approaching and the federal government has already shown its willingness to deploy the military to big cities for intimidation purposes.

Fall of democracy to dictatorship is a different problem than a failed state, and both that and balkanization are more likely than a failed state scenario (though balkanization could result in one or more failed states among the successors.)

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