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It's like saying your newborn will have the same mass as earth in 50 years if he continues on his first month weight gain trajectory.

METR uses a 50% success rate in that analysis, beecause the models are non-determistic.

METR measures tasks, not projects. No project I've worked on had individual tasks that were supposed to take longer than 2 weeks, the PM* broke them down to sub-tasks if they were any bigger.

* At least, where we had a PM. The places I was self-directed could arguably provide an interesting comparison.