Hacker News Reader

Comment by Jlagreen | Hacker News Reader

And you have that right.

And now imagine what will happen when OpenAI makes deals with Nvidia and AMD. Do you think Hyperscalers will just watch?

I expect Musk to make a $1 trillion deal soon. I guess, that's why he wants to get the $1 trillion from Tesla.

And do you think Meta, Amazon, Microsoft and Google will stand by while Altman and Musk are buying future supply from Nvidia and AMD?

I love that. As an investor in Nvidia, I hope that these future promises will push the stock 4-5x quickly in Cisco fashion because then I can sell and retire in my 40s with a huge pile of money watching the bubble explosion on some beach on an island :)

View on HN

Trading any of this, the only question that you need to answer is:

What is more painful to you, missing some gains on the way up or holding positions that have flipped from positive to negative very rapidly?

Markets like this, the moves will be violent in both directions, not just on the way up.

This is all assuming that the government will be able to bail them out of trouble. But the bond market / interests rates / inflation and government debt mean they could so serious damage to the country if they tried.

My cost base of Nvidia is $1 so for me to lose is that Nvidia gets back to way before COVID valuation.

Nvidia is more worth than $1 per share on gaming alone.

Totally fair. If you've got a great cost basis, you can stress less. The question then becomes what feels worse:

Watching a position you sold double or watching a position you're holding get cut in half?

There is one answer to this question which is called options. Selling short term OTM CCs with half of premium being used to buy ITM Calls (1/3 protection of the CC), OTM Calls (protection against gap up) and longterm OTM Puts (earn money when Nvidia nose dives).

There is no free money from option selling, you are taking some form of directional risk whether you realise it or not

This looks like the house money effect. It's sort of a corollary to the sunk cost fallacy.

The fact you are even writing this usually means you should sell immediately.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com