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I'm trying to pinpoint the canary in the financial coal mine here. There will be a time to pull out of the market and I really want to have an idea of when. I know, timing the market, but this isn't some small market correction we're talking about here.

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this is a bit hackneyed but it's true: time in the market > timing the market

now obviously, if you do time the market perfectly, that's the best. but it is far far more likely to shoot yourself in the foot by trying

TQQQ exists.

There is a liquid market of TQQQ puts.

I'm trying to get out ahead of that and find an indicator that says it's about to collapse.

I don't think there's a good indicator for predicting it ahead of time. If you are worried you could switch from tech stocks to something more conservative.

You can sometimes tell when the collapse has started from the headlines though - stuff like top stocks down 30%, layoffs announced. Which may sound too late but with the dotcoms things kept going down for another couple of years after that.

Market reflexivity makes an obvious indicator highly improbable.

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