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Comment by simonw | Hacker News Reader

That chart looks like the peak of inflated expectations leading into the trough of disillusionment to me, timing feels right too. https://share.google/images/9qsYWadQDDDlXHNQ2

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The bigger question is whether it's going to disappear completely for the next 30 years, or if it's going to limp along, simmering on the back burner, just trying to optimize mattress sales.

The truth is we have no idea. Personally I'm 100% sure the future will look nothing like what Altman is saying, but I'm a logical person so I have to admit there exist a minuscule probability these GenAI CEO's vision will come true. More rationally, I'd expect something like Meta with Metaverse - enormously missing the mark but still useful for many people. The actual usage will be a function of utility and price.

Who has "the Metaverse" been useful for?

Not the concept but the device itself - for players.

Can you provide usage statistics to support this claim?

https://www.roadtovr.com/meta-quest-store-revenue-milestone-...

1. Those are revenue statistics. I am asking for you to provide data to support the claim “users are finding utility from the Metaverse”, not the claim “Meta is generating revenue from the Quest Marketplace.” Those are different claims.

2. Is it your assertion that all content offered on the Quest Marketplace is “the Metaverse?” Is the top paid application “Beat Saber” a Metaverse app?

3. The source of your statistics is Meta, a company famous for repeatedly falsifying platform usage metrics [1].

https://appleinsider.com/articles/25/08/21/meta-accused-of-i...

You are right, I can't prove the validity of "users are finding utility from the Metaverse". I somewhat can argue that the device itself is indeed useful though:

https://patentpc.com/blog/vr-headset-sales-stats-whos-leadin...

20 millions is not nothing, it means that at least some people find these useful, and I can understand why, even though personally I wouldn't touch it.

Also, I believe VR had similarly distorted expectations as LLMs, with the whole Meta rebranding, Apple VR etc., all it being a flop from the point of view of investors (and, in the case of Apple VR, a good portion of users):

https://nypost.com/2024/11/12/tech/apples-vision-pro-flop-co...

Or more likely it’ll look like the e-commerce adoption plots with a giant pop in the late 90s and then a 20 year slog of consistent growth [1]

Pretty much exactly what the S-curve looks like.

[1]: https://www.marketplacepulse.com/stats/us-e-commerce-growth-...

Possibly. With one caveat: to do ecommerce I just need a VPS and WooCommerce or Prestashop on it. In order to do GenAI, I either need to have an order of magnitude (or more) expensive server, or using an API which depending on usage might get terribly expensive for SOTA models.

Moore's law has slowed but it's still going. Future hardware will be an order of magnitude more powerful at the same price.

Personally i believe it will stay with us, for a long time. The benefit is real.

The benefit is real, but the profits are not. Companies ability to eventually make money off of this is what will decide if it stays around or not.

Yeah and I don’t think Zuckerberg et all will be willing to risk a steep drop in their wealth for a long period to carry on reinvesting - yea they have control but investors can still reflect their sentiment in the stock price. And the wealth of senior management at these firms is tied up in the price of stock.

This is what happened with the metaverse debacle where the share price fell below 100usd.

Just as a decent working life improvement, not a new industrial revolution.

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