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Comment by Rover222 | Hacker News Reader

Not really your main point, but Tesla self driving is quite incredible, despite what internet clickbait says. They have a clear path to full autonomy with vision-only systems.

But yeah, certainly 5-7 years behind the initial schedule. Which I guess was more of your point.

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You’re still falling for it. They have a clear path to vision-only autonomy IN THE BAY AREA.

Let’s see it work in Minnesota in the winter where you can’t see lane markings, everything is white, and the camera lenses immediately get covered with road salt spray.

Heck, I'm concerned how they're going to work in the Bay Area after an earthquake or cell network outage.

Yeah I'm falling for it by using it every day in 95% of my driving. You're falling for media stories.

For now.

It's important to not confuse activity, with progress, with results.

At the same time, it's important to not confuse or downplay results, with progress, with activity.

There seems to be activity, progress, and results. It seems to be speeding up.

I don't have any preference for or against Tesla. Just observing.

> For now.

What can incremental progress do to make a camera see through road salt deposited on its lens? I call bullshit. There isn't any incremental path because it's not physically possible. The photons are stopped by the salt. No amount of "AI" or what the fuck ever else will change this. There is no path towards "progress" here.

My understanding is lenses should be inside the windshield, and a system should not oeprate if it can't see.

I don't operate from an assumption that cameras will remain the same as they are today.

Your comment did remind me about Comma, though.

https://comma.ai/

Just for the sake of argument, they could use spinning lenses like you do on a camera in inclement weather

Yeah or some sort of washer/wiper system, but there's much better, safer technology for this. They could just use it.

The front bumper cameras already have a spray wash

You'll eat your words much sooner than you think. The cameras don't need much clarity to work effectively (they work quite well in intense rain). The main forward camera is behind the windshield already.

OK, but I think it will end up being more than 25 years behind schedule, taking into account the claims

which is what people like Chris Urmson and Bill Gurley already said prior to 2018 (see my sibling comment)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

We're going to end up with complete autonomy

Ultimately you'll be able to summon your car anywhere … your car can get to you. I think that within two years, you'll be able to summon your car from across the country

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(Also, in 2018 I said I'd be the first to buy a car where I could sleep behind the wheel while going from SF to Portland or LA. That obviously doesn't exist now.

Anyone want to take a bet on whether this will be possible in 2032, 7 years from now? I'd bet NO, but we can check in 2032 :-) )

It will coincide with the Year of the Linux Desktop.

Teslas are already driving an hour alone to deliver themselves from the factory.

25 years is far fetched. Again, you obviously have a bone to pick because HN disagreed with you, but this obsession with yours is such that you’re no longer making sense. 25 years?? Totally insane.

To be fair, I don't see any sort of technical arguments on either side to justify their claims. You need some clue about its internal design and its current state to make an educated guess about the expected development time. Without that, 25 years is as valid a guess as 5 years. But I won't dismiss any claims outright. I'm all ears if anyone has any explanation to offer.

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