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Comment by tho2342o349423 | Hacker News Reader

At this point, pretty much all of the US markets (and the USD) is hinging on "unlimited upside" promised by techbros and their magic AGIs & robots. They probably get orders from all the way up the food chain to keep the show going.

Wonder what'll happen to JPY once the Yen-carry unwinds from this massive hype-cycle - will probably hit 70 JPY to the dollar! Currently Sony Bank in Japan offers USD time-deposits at 8% pa. - that's just insanely high for what is supposed to be a stable developed economy.

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They probably get orders from all the way up the food chain to keep the show going.

Honestly I think the same thing happened with self-driving cars ~10 years ago.

Larry Page and Google's "submarine" marketing convinced investors and CEOs of automakers and tech companies [1] that they were going to become obsolete, and that Google would be taking all that profit.

In 2016, GM acquired Cruise for $1 billion or so. It seems like the whole thing was cancelled in 2023, written off, and the CEO was let go

How much profit is Waymo making now? I'm pretty sure it's $0. And they've probably gone through hundreds of billions in funding

How's Tesla Autopilot doing? Larry also "negatively inspired" Elon to start OpenAI with other people

I think if investors/CEOs/automakers had known how it was going to turn out, and how much money they were going to lose 10 years later, they might not have jumped on the FOMO train

But it turns out that AI is a plausible "magic box" that you extrapolate all sorts of economic consequences from

(on the other hand, hype cycles aren't necessarily bad; they're probably necessary to get things done. But I also think this one is masking the fact that software is getting worse and more user hostile at the same time. Probably one of the best ways to increase AI adoption is to make the underlying software more user hostile.)

[1] I think even Apple did some kind of self-driving car thing at one point.

Apple car project

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_car_project

>From 2014 until 2024, Apple undertook a research and development effort to develop an electric and self-driving car,[1] codenamed "Project Titan".[2][3] Apple never openly discussed any of its automotive research,[4] but around 5,000 employees were reported to be working on the project as of 2018.[5] In May 2018, Apple reportedly partnered with Volkswagen to produce an autonomous employee shuttle van based on the T6 Transporter commercial vehicle platform.[6] In August 2018, the BBC reported that Apple had 66 road-registered driverless cars, with 111 drivers registered to operate those cars.[7] In 2020, it was believed that Apple was still working on self-driving related hardware, software and service as a potential product, instead of actual Apple-branded cars.[8] In December 2020, Reuters reported that Apple was planning on a possible launch date of 2024,[9] but analyst Ming-Chi Kuo claimed it would not be launched before 2025 and might not be launched until 2028 or later.[10]

In February 2024, Apple executives canceled their plans to release the autonomous electric vehicle, instead shifting resources on the project to the company's generative artificial intelligence efforts.[11][12] The project had reportedly cost the company over $1 billion per year, with other parts of Apple collaborating and costing hundreds of millions of dollars in additional spend. Additionally, over 600 employees were laid off due to the cancellation of the project.[13]

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Ahh yes, capitalists noteworthy haters of building trains. If you ignore the private companies that built the NYC subway system(s), all of US freight rail, and invented trains.

It's no coincidence all your examples are over 100 years old lol. The rise of the individual automobile (a very lucrative business proposition in many aspects) was done alongside massive sabotage of competing alternatives, with the disastrous consequences that are today plain.

It's also no coincidence America has built no rail in many decades while centrally planned China built a massive HSR network in the past 15 years.

Do you have any references?

Surely you don’t think economics is the only difference here. You could even more easily explain it with a lack of property protection in China or the population density along the east coast.

Please don't post ideological flamebait like this on HN. We've had to ask you repeatedly to observe the guidelines in recent months. Hacker News is only a place where people want to participate because others make an effort to keep the standards up. Please do your part to raise the level, rather than dragging it down. This line from the guidelines is particularly relevant:

Please don't use Hacker News for political or ideological battle. It tramples curiosity.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Not really your main point, but Tesla self driving is quite incredible, despite what internet clickbait says. They have a clear path to full autonomy with vision-only systems.

But yeah, certainly 5-7 years behind the initial schedule. Which I guess was more of your point.

OK, but I think it will end up being more than 25 years behind schedule, taking into account the claims

which is what people like Chris Urmson and Bill Gurley already said prior to 2018 (see my sibling comment)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

We're going to end up with complete autonomy

Ultimately you'll be able to summon your car anywhere … your car can get to you. I think that within two years, you'll be able to summon your car from across the country

---

(Also, in 2018 I said I'd be the first to buy a car where I could sleep behind the wheel while going from SF to Portland or LA. That obviously doesn't exist now.

Anyone want to take a bet on whether this will be possible in 2032, 7 years from now? I'd bet NO, but we can check in 2032 :-) )

25 years is far fetched. Again, you obviously have a bone to pick because HN disagreed with you, but this obsession with yours is such that you’re no longer making sense. 25 years?? Totally insane.

To be fair, I don't see any sort of technical arguments on either side to justify their claims. You need some clue about its internal design and its current state to make an educated guess about the expected development time. Without that, 25 years is as valid a guess as 5 years. But I won't dismiss any claims outright. I'm all ears if anyone has any explanation to offer.

Teslas are already driving an hour alone to deliver themselves from the factory.

It will coincide with the Year of the Linux Desktop.

You’re still falling for it. They have a clear path to vision-only autonomy IN THE BAY AREA.

Let’s see it work in Minnesota in the winter where you can’t see lane markings, everything is white, and the camera lenses immediately get covered with road salt spray.

For now.

It's important to not confuse activity, with progress, with results.

At the same time, it's important to not confuse or downplay results, with progress, with activity.

There seems to be activity, progress, and results. It seems to be speeding up.

I don't have any preference for or against Tesla. Just observing.

> For now.

What can incremental progress do to make a camera see through road salt deposited on its lens? I call bullshit. There isn't any incremental path because it's not physically possible. The photons are stopped by the salt. No amount of "AI" or what the fuck ever else will change this. There is no path towards "progress" here.

Just for the sake of argument, they could use spinning lenses like you do on a camera in inclement weather

Yeah or some sort of washer/wiper system, but there's much better, safer technology for this. They could just use it.

The front bumper cameras already have a spray wash

My understanding is lenses should be inside the windshield, and a system should not oeprate if it can't see.

I don't operate from an assumption that cameras will remain the same as they are today.

Your comment did remind me about Comma, though.

https://comma.ai/

You'll eat your words much sooner than you think. The cameras don't need much clarity to work effectively (they work quite well in intense rain). The main forward camera is behind the windshield already.

Heck, I'm concerned how they're going to work in the Bay Area after an earthquake or cell network outage.

Yeah I'm falling for it by using it every day in 95% of my driving. You're falling for media stories.

Also, I think Hacker News mostly believed the hype about self-driving cars, with relatively little pushback. Many people were influenced by what the CEOs/investors said, and of course the prospect of jobs and "cool tech"

e.g. in 2018, over 7 years ago, I was simply pointing out that people like Chris Urmson (who had WORKED ON self-driving for decades) and Bill Gurley said self-driving would take 25+ years to deploy (which seems totally accurate now)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16353541

And I got significant pushback

Actually I remember some in-person conversations with MUCH MORE push back than that, including from some close friends.

They believed things because they were told by the media it would happen

People told me in 2018 that their 16 year old would not need to learn how to drive, etc. (In 2025, self-driving is not available in even ONE of their end points for a trip, let alone two end points)

Likewise, at least some people are convinced now that "coding as a job is going away" -- some people are even deathly depressed about it

Hacker News fell for f'n 3D TVs.

Hacker News goes for anything that they think they might be able to make money off of, just like all middle-class people. They evaluate events based on how they could affect them personally. Actual plausibility isn't even secondary, they simply defer to the salesmen (whom they admire and hope one day to be.)

Wonder how far along we’d be on the path to self driving without any hype cycles…

I suspect stuff like lane following assist and adaptive cruise control

1) will ultimately provide the path to self driving eventually

2) wasn’t particularly helped by the hype cycle

1 is impossible to say at his point, for 2 I guess somebody who works in the field can come along and correct me.

There are commercial self-driving cab services operating in a couple dozen cities right now.

That's where we are.

GM has 6 month attention span, abandoning self driving is suicidal short term thinking.

Waymo has been slow and steady, and has built something pretty great.

I recently watched Not Just Bikes' video on the disastrous future side effects of self-driving cars[0]. Of course it made me think about the massive PR push that made us think they were around the corner, but also about the manufactured consent for these technologies in the first place. Right now this kind of discussion is hitting the mainstream with the 'clanker'[1] backlash. I think it's really obvious to a lot of people that the AI push is not organic and is not based around consumer needs, and this manipulation is making people genuinely angry[2] (ok jreg is a performance artist, but just because something is performative doesn't mean it's not real).

[0]: https://youtu.be/040ejWnFkj0?si=7yI3eKkirJdTWPwR [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clanker [2]: https://youtu.be/RpRRejhgtVI?si=aZUVcsY8VyR_jbBA

    In 2016, GM acquired Cruise for $1 billion or so. It seems like the whole thing was cancelled in 2023, written off, and the CEO was let go

It was shut down because they had a collision that made front page news across the country which was followed by a cover-up. Their production lines were shut down, all revenue operations ceased, and the permits they needed to operate were withdrawn. It's not like the decision was random.

    How much profit is Waymo making now? I'm pretty sure it's $0.

Profit is a fuzzy concept for even the most transparent private companies, but Waymo's revenue is likely in the hundreds of millions. They've received around $12B in funding, not hundreds of billions.

Waymo's done 10M rides*. If we hand wave $10 per ride, that's $100M. Which is way more money than I have, but not all that much. It's still much bigger than $0 though!

* https://www.cbtnews.com/waymo-hits-10m-driverless-rides-eyes...

That number was originally announced in May. They've completed an additional 3M rides since then if they've done no additional scaling. Their average fares are also closer to $15-20 than $10.

I would say the same of the following:

1) crypto: raise funding, buy crypto as collateral, raise more funding with said collateral, rinse and repeat.

2) gpu datacenters: raise funding, buy gpus as collateral, raise more funding, buy more gpus, rinse and repeat.

3) zero day options: average folks want a daily lottery thrill. rinse and repeat.

All of the above are fed by fomo and to some extent hype, and ripe for a reckoning.

FWIW when I lived in Japan in 1968-69 it was 360 JPY to the dollar. I felt like a millionaire!

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