> the problem is that in order to develop an intuition for questions that LLMs can answer, the user will at least need to know something about the topic beforehand

This is why simonw (The author) has his "pelican on a bike" -test, it's not 100% accurate but it is a good indicator.

I have a set of my own standard queries and problems (no counting characters or algebra crap) I feed to new LLMs I'm testing

None of the questions exist outside of my own Obsidian note so they can't be gamed by LLM authors. And I've tested multiple different LLMs using them so I have a "feeling" on what the answer should look like. And I personally know the correct answer so I can immediately validate them.