He seems to be trying to give the impression that 500 Startups is for plucky underdogs, and YC isn't. It would certainly be in his interest to have founders believe that. But the fact is that when the black swans show up on our doorstep, they don't seem like they're going to be black swans. That was the whole point of my essay; that's why I refer to them as black swans, and why I say that "we're in a business where we need to pick unpromising-looking outliers."