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But there then becomes an incentive to lower prices to capture more demand. I don’t think that tariffs will incentivize collusion any more often.

That's very risky for companies to do because because you might not capture that demand. If you fail then you just lost money.

One reason is buyers may only consider alternatives when prices increase.

If you’re lowering prices because your costs went down, then you haven’t lost money.

That's how market forces work, it's risky but it pays off until prices hit equilibrium.