Also, lo, PS5 https://www.reddit.com/r/PS5/comments/1my6t3o/sony_discounts...
Remember future contenders... bribery is legal now.
Saying stuff like "China will pay the tariffs" was always bloviating fantasy to anyone who can stitch 2 brain cells together to make a coherent thought.
You'd think this is obvious, but you'd think people wouldn't vote for such ones either in the first place.
Trump, with his lying and outright vote buying (No Taxes on Tips) is the kind of right wing candidate that can win enough immigrants to be nationally viable. Blue Rose research estimates Trump tied with naturalized citizens. Little Bangladesh in Queens swung 50 points to the right from 2020. Populist rhetoric unrooted in facts is really popular among third world voters.
Harris took the same position on 'no taxes on tips'. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyn511dgnjo.amp
So most people thought that "no taxes on tips" was a Trump position that differentiated him from Harris.
Blue Rose’s (the leading dem pollster) comprehensive retrospective of the 2024 election was telling: https://data.blueroseresearch.org/hubfs/2024%20Blue%20Rose%2... (“Our best estimate is that immigrant voters swung from a Biden+27 voting bloc in 2020 to a Trump+1 group in 2024.”).
As for the rest, I can’t imagine Indian Americans being happy with Trump’s treatment of India, but you probably know more about that than me.
By contrast, Trump made zero gain among non-Hispanic whites from 2020 to 2024: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/voting-patte.... His entire vote swing came from non-whites, mainly hispanics and asians, most of whom are either immigrants or children of immigrants. How do you explain a 27 point swing among naturalized citizens while non-hispanic whites didn’t move at all? That’s inconsistent with the popular theory that this election was about inflation, or group-specific issues like Gaza.
I think the explanation instead lies in the cultural differences between established Americans and immigrants and their children. If you look around at the world, small-government Anglo-American conservatism basically doesn’t exist anywhere else. It’s unusual. But conservatism exists everywhere. And if you look at conservative leaders in Asia or Africa or Latin America, they look much more like Trump than they do Mitt Romney or George H.W. Bush. Conservatives elsewhere value order, aggressiveness against the opposition, patriarchal energy, loyalty to the clan, etc. And they don’t have the taboos that prevented gentile WASPs like Bush or Romney from aggressively attacking opponents, lying to reframe policy issues, etc. As more of the American electorate is comprised of people from these foreign cultures, the more any conservative candidate will target what these cultures value in a conservative leader.
The Trump GOP this is one manifestation of America’s long shift away from being a culturally Anglo country to being a multicultural country: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/opinion/george-bush-wasps.... This is a process that started with the mass immigration of the early 20th century: the last real WASP Republican was Coolidge. Reagan talked the talk, but his substantive policies reflected shifts away from small-government conservatism necessary to get Irish and Italian Catholics to vote Republican (who had voted 80% Democrat before). And now with Trump Anglos make such a small portion of the GOP the tip of the hat to Anglo conservatism is vestigial. He’s free to be a fully third world conservative.
A tariff is a consumption tax that’s less than 100% passed onto consumers, which has the effect of discouraging imports. All good things.
Tariffs are the exact opposite of that, they're highly regressive.
Wondering why raising higher-bracket income tax is such a problem.
There are lots of ways to design a progressive consumption tax, but yes, one way is to tax luxury goods at a higher rate than essentials. This is already done in many states, for example, where groceries (or at least "basic" groceries like bread, milk and produce but not prepared foods) are exempt from sales tax.
Another way is a sales tax rebate, e.g. where everyone can file for a rebate of sales tax of, say, the first $10000 of goods in a year. So poorer people with lower expenditures end up having a much lower effective tax rate.
“Trump has floated a combination of two options: paying down the government’s multi-trillion debt and sending ‘tariff rebate checks’ to Americans.”
That seems like a pretty onerous requirement for poorer people, who are guaranteed to also be more stressed, working longer hours, etc.
Economists don’t love income taxes, and they really don’t love investment/capital gains taxes (see the NPR article I linked).[1]
The bigger problem is what you mean by “higher-bracket income tax.” 60% of all income is earned by the top 40% outside the top 1%: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/distr.... To have the kind of welfare state the U.S. has, you need to raise taxes on those people a lot. But that’s politically impossible. In 40 years, we never managed to undo the bulk of Reagan’s tax cuts.
If you’re not willing to raise the rates on more than half your potential tax base, then you’ll need to do very steep hikes on the top 1%. Or you need to explore things like wealth taxes and taxing unrealized capital gains, which economists really hate.
The European countries realized that in a globalized economy, you have to be competitive on business and investment taxes. That’s why they heavily tax the middle class, including with consumption taxes.
[1] They don’t love tariffs either. But tariffs implicate concerns about foreign relations that are basically outside the scope of economics. The economic models simply don’t factor in the political risk of outsourcing all your steel production to a potential enemy. That’s why nearly every developed country ignores the economic consensus when it comes to things like agricultural subsidies. The political risk of not being food sufficient simply outweighs the economic downside.
Additionally there are a lot of goods that are GST exempt.
Things like basic groceries, prescription drugs, feminine hygiene products, hearing aids etc...
I mean, at the extreme, yes (some countries do have sin taxes on those sorts of things). But for a more basic example, take EU VAT. EU countries usually have three or four VAT rates; basic essential goods are often VAT-exempt.
(This occasionally leads to fun disputes; for instance see the famous Jaffa Cake court case, or the more recent determination by the Irish Supreme Court that Subway's bread was not bread.)
Thank you, this is hilarious... [0] [1] ...and not that hilarious. :-/ [2] I will never look at Subway's sandwiches the same way again.
[0] https://www.npr.org/2020/10/01/919189045/for-subway-a-ruling...
[1] https://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2013/01/subway-foot-lo...
[2] https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2014/02/06/272455631/su...
The FT's been having fun investigating whether Tesco's Birthday Cake or M&S's Strawberries and Cream sandwiches are subject to VAT. The answer seems to be no but maybe they should (although nobody cares, probably). Quality journalism at its best.
> Taxes discourage whatever you're taxing, but we like income, so why tax it? Payroll taxes discourage creating jobs. Not such a good idea. Instead, impose a consumption tax...
So discouraging consumption is somehow better? I mean maybe it is, but if that's the underlying argument they need to actually make it.
That’s also why the European countries like France have much higher consumption taxes than the U.S., while having similar corporate taxes. They want to discourage consumption.
Heck - do you think there is a bulk of supporters that agree with you now, when stated so bluntly and with the context that you consider yourself a democrat?
Can you at least understand that from an outsider watching this arc, it feels like Trump supporters are being led around by the nose - even if the changed policy positions are being championed by completely different individuals than the previously vocal supporters who were concerned with price inflation?
As for the specific policy argument - import taxes aren't the usual framing of consumption tax that applies to consumers, but rather they apply to industry as well. Taxing intermediate steps creates a drag on the economy, similar to if we taxed business revenue. And obviously doubling the price of equipment required to set up a new factory is completely contrary to the purported goal of bringing back domestic manufacturing.
(Never mind how several decades of following economist prescriptions about spherical cows in a vacuum has created an absolute mess)
Trump’s policy didn’t change. What changed is that people became reluctant to defend the actual reason economists oppose tariffs—because they think free trade is good. That’s one of those “spherical cow” arguments with a poor track record.
So critics of Trump shifted to attacking tariffs as a “tax.” But economists don’t oppose tariffs for that reason. Economists think consumption taxes are good! And there is no inconsistency between accepting higher prices for foreign goods to further industrial policy, and also opposing higher prices caused by money printing.
And as I also said, tariffs aren't really a "consumption tax" as economists champion, because they also tax industrial investment - exactly one of the things Trump claims his policies are meant to encourage, not discourage. But you skipped addressing that point, too.