That’s the thing. There’s value in AI, it’s just not worth half a trillion dollars to train a new model that’s 0.4% better on benchmarks. Meta is never going to get a worthwhile return on spending $100M on individual engineers.

But that doesn’t mean AI is without its uses. We’re just in that painful phase where the hype needs to die down and we treat LLMs as what they really are; an interesting new tool in the toolkit that provides some new ways to solve problems. It’s almost certainly not going to turn into AGI any time soon. It’s not worth trillions. It’s certainly worth something, though.

I think the financials on developing new frontier models are terrible. But I’ve already built multiple AI projects for my company that are making money and we’ve got extremely happy customers.

Investors thought one company was going to win the AI Wars and make a quadrillion dollars. Instead it’s probably going to be 10,000 startups that will build interesting products based on AI, and training new models won’t actually be a good financial move.