Looks like the AWS CEO has changed religion. A year back, he was aboard the ai-train - saying AI will do all coding in 2 years [1]
Finally, the c-suite is getting it.
Finally, the c-suite is getting it.
"It just means that each of us has to get more in tune with what our customers need and what the actual end thing is that we're going to try to go build, because that's going to be more and more of what the work is as opposed to sitting down and actually writing code...."
https://www.businessinsider.com/aws-ceo-developers-stop-codi...
If you read the full remarks they're consistent with what he says here. He says "writing code" may be a skill that's less useful, which is why it's important to hire junior devs and teach them how to learn so they learn the skills that are useful.
Some subset of the population likes to pretend their workforce is a cost that provides less than zero value or utility, and all the value and utility comes from shareholders.
But if this isn't true, and collective skill is worth value, then saying anyone can have that with AI at least has some headwind on your share price - which is all they care about.
Does that offset a potential tailwind from slightly higher margins?
I don't think any established company should be cheerleading that anyone can easily upset their monopoly with a couple of carefully crafted prompts.
It was always kind of strange to me, and seemed as though they were telling everyone, our moat is gone, and that is good.
If you really believed anyone could do anything with AI, then the risk of PEs collapsing would be high, which would be bad for the capital class. Now you have to correctly guess what's the next best thing constantly to keep your ROI instead of just parking it in save havens - like FAANG.
Bedrock/Q is a great example of how Amazon works. If we throw $XXX at the problem and YYY SDEs at the problem we should be able to build Github Copilot, GPT-3, OpenRouter and Cursor ourselves instead of trying to competitively acquire and attract talent. The fact that Codewhisperer, Q and Titan barely get spoken about on HN or Twitter tells you how successful this is.
But if you have that perspective then the equation is simple. If S3 can make 5 XXL features per year with 20 SDEs then if we adopt “Agentic AI” we should be able to build 10 XXL features with 10 SDEs.
Little care is given to organizational knowledge, experience, vision etc. that is the value (in their mind) of leadership not ICs.
Parent is talking about how C-Suite doesn’t want to trumpet something that implies their entire corporate structure is extremely disadvantaged vs new entrants and your response is “Amazon wants to build everything themselves”?
Amazon isn’t some behaviorally deterministic entity, and it could (and should?) want to both preserve goodwill and build more internally vs pay multiples to acquire.
I guess it could be that people inside are not people they have to compete with, but it doesn’t seem like that’s what you're saying.
Not to say that‘s what the AWS CEO is doing—maybe it is, maybe it isn’t, I haven’t checked—I’m just commenting on the general idea.
If I had any interest in ever working for BigTech again (and I would rather get an anal probe daily with a cactus), I could relatively easily get into Google’s equivalent department as a “senior” based on my connections.
1. It is easier to make more money by being hired than by being promoted or not even being promoted and just kept at market rates for doing your current job. I addressed that in a sibling reply.
2. It’s easier to come in at a higher level than to be promoted to a higher level. To get “promoted” at BigTech there is a committee, promo docs where you have to document how you have already been working at that level and your past reviews are taken into account.
To come in that level you control the narrative and only have to pass 5-6 rounds of technical and behavioral interviews.
If I came into my current company at a level below staff, it would have taken a couple of years to be promoted to my current staff position (equivalent to a senior at AWS) and a few successful projects. All I had to do was interview well and tell the stories I wanted to tell about my achievements over the past 4 years. I didn’t have to speak on failures.
They have an interest in getting those grads turned into would-be-L5s even if they leave for a different company. If they 'boomerang back' at L7 that's great. They can't if they never got a grad job.
Pasting the quote for reference:
> Amazon Web Services CEO Matt Garman claims that in 2 years coding by humans won't really be a thing, and it will all be done by networks of AI's who are far smarter, cheaper, and more reliable than human coders.
Unless this guy speaks exclusively in riddles, this seems incredibly inconsistent.
It can only mean one thing: the music is about to stop.