Tech, chip stock sell-off continues as AI bubble fears mount
finance.yahoo.com
finance.yahoo.com
I don't think any significant conclusion, for the future of AI/possibility of AGI, should be made by looking at a single model/company.
What I'm trying to say is that the stock market mostly runs on vibes at this point. And when you have the CEO of the leading model company hyping up a release people have been anticipating for 2 years by tweeting out images of the death star, saying that it made him feel useless, etc. etc., and then it turns out to be a cost-cutting exercise and causes a massive uproar amongst its most loyal users, I think the market is going to adjust to reflect the bad vibes.
I think it’s interesting to watch this play out. I believe many people knew that gpt5 was chronically delayed as long as it could be, because the measuring stick of 2->3->4 was going to show a significant smaller step, which would inevitably destroy their market value.
It would be interesting if that does end up becoming the thing that pops the bubble. There is not longer any reason for the average person to take seriously the hype from OpenAI. They can now see for themselves that the long awaited release of GPT5 is an emperor without clothes.
That was a general market shakeup, this seems potentially much more focused.
Duck brand duct tape!
So as annoying as it is, usage continues to evolve.
> During World War II, Revolite (then a division of Johnson & Johnson) developed an adhesive tape made from a rubber-based adhesive applied to a durable duck cloth backing. This tape resisted water and was used to seal some ammunition cases during that period.
This makes me think Duck is the original term for the tape.
Made even more confusing by the introduction of "Duck brand Duct Tape".
Fun fact: The product sold as "duct tape", or sometimes actually as "duck tape"(!) is not generally suitable for use in ducts.
On any particular days stocks will go up and down 1% - 3% just on trading and more when larger investors decides to profit take.
Drops over a certain percentage can trigger automated sell-offs creating bigger drops - and that's it. It's big players who can move the market enough to create a signal, and herd mentality from there.
Palantir for example hit a level and a lot of investors sold expecting a drop. They will now be buying back in once it hit its floor. Rinse, repeat.
Maybe the AI stocks are more volatile with wilder swings due to the hype, but there's no bubble unless they start failing or the money can move to somewhere with better returns.
Nvidia and Palantir are wildly profitable right now, so talk of a bubble is premature.
Always Be Selling
That said, "GPT-5 will not be any better than competitors' products, demonstrating OpenAI was bluffing about AGI and destroying investor exuberance" was a very specific prediction made by (for example) Gary Marcus.