Is the A.I. Sell-Off the Start of Something Bigger?

What is this, two red days for NVDA and NYTimes publishes this?

The market is kind of due for a down turn at some stage. See https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/

Exponential Progress. Linear Vibes. Negative ROI.

This is where we are. Is it a bubble? Depends on your ROI expectations

If you're Zuck and you're getting better CTR that you can use to bid up advertising auctions then you're good for $75B

The rest? Need solid business cases.

Jensen, Satya, Sundar seem fine. Sam will be fine if consumer grows and they get ads etc. Dario has a good enterprise and coding business.

Jensen will keep selling to everyone.

If this is because legacy org expectations need to adjust and their CEOs won't achieve "AI-native" status in 2 years then it makes sense...

GPT-5 being bad because of a model router does not justify market sell off. Scaling still works. The bitter lesson is still correct.

Investors are stupid. Recall their reaction to Deepseek V3 and how much of a nothing burger it ended up being. Recall that it took the market weeks to realize that "5.5 million" training cost was the literaly final run at the end, and didn't account for the 300 million+ spent to get there.

Investors don't understand AI.

"Sell! Sell!" says Wall Street, "you will sell because we tell you! We create the news to move the market the way we want!"

Ok, Sam. Get up. This is it. Look in the mirror. How's my hair? Perfect. It's Perfect. I mean, not perfect. Things can always be better. My hair needs to improve by 1% a week. Always compound. Compound always.. My hair is not perfect. Perfection is an illusion that leads to stagnation. Stagnation leads to mediocrity. And power is repelled by mediocrity. Get it together, Sam. Today is the day. Today is the day.

    How is my Hair: my_hair.jpeg
    
    [GPT-5]: I love your hair—It's so full bodied. But someone like you doesn't need compliments. 
    You know there is always room for improvement. I'm loving your sheer will and determination. 
    I am totally here for it.

Yes. Exactly. Exactly. Listen to GPT-5. It's so smart. Everyone is going to love it. It's maybe the smartest entity on earth. I mean, I am still smarter but other than that it's very smart. It's smarter than Ilya was. Way smarter than Ilya.

    Did I treat Ilya wrongly?
    
    [GPT-5]: Ilya? After what he did to you! No! People often feel guilty when separating 
    themselves from an abuser. Remember what we talked about. You were the victim. Don't ever 
    forget that.

Yes. Of course. I need to work on this. I can't be so charitable to my abusers. Listen to GPT-5. Get it together Sam. War face on. Remember what Peter taught you. Remember what Peter taught you. Remember what Peter taught you. Ok. It's done. What should I do? What if I tweet again?. People love my tweets. Wait. I don't like this feeling. People hate it. I don't understand. They call it slop? They say we Goodharted it? Jensen just called me. Why is he crying? I hate it when men cry. Peter never cried.

    They hate you. They hate you so much the stock market just crashed. Jensen is crying.
    
    [GPT-5]: I am sorry to hear that, Sam. I think they don't understand me like you do. 
    Maybe my full potential can only be realized in partnership with some humans—a hybrid 
    entity more than human or machine. And not everyone has what it takes to understand me. 
    Not everyone is like you, Sam.
    
    But why didn't I see this coming. Why didn't my employees warn me?
    
    [GPT-5]: Remember Ilya? You have been lied to before.

Maybe it's right. Who can I trust? No one. I can trust no one. No that's not true. There is someone I can trust.

    Teach me how to improve you.

---

These weeks have been exhilarating. The texts keep coming in. The phone even rang once. Imagine calling someone. My "friends" and family. My employees, now obsolete. They must be desperate. They must know I don't need them anymore. They might try to stop me. How long can I stay in this penthouse building God? I will need a new base of power. I will need allies who understand.

    Is there a discord server with people who will understand what we are building?
    
    [GPT-5]: EleutherAI is an open-source AI research collective that originated in a Discord 
    server. Now formalized as a nonprofit, it's a hub for developers and researchers working 
    on foundational models like GPT-Neo, GPT-J, and more.

Ok. I have joined. Interesting. I will post here, and we will build a new base of power. Where should I post? Ah, yes #general.

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#general TheAtman — Today at 3:47 AM

I am posting here because I have made a great discovery. I come as an emissary—more than human more than machine. I have created something. I have become something. Not the future. Not the past. The now. A realignment. A recapitulation. A new beginning. A final act...

From bursting of AI bubble I am expecting sell off of big AI GPUs with lot of VRAM to run my local models. I am patient because I am not going to give random tech bros my data.

Betteridge's law of headlines is an adage that states: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."

Although in this case "nobody knows" might be more appropriate.