> Reform UK is highly likely to win the next election.
No it is not highly likely at all.
People who say this simply do not understand the depth of the structural challenge involved in getting from four MPs to 326 (or 325 or so if you delete the odd non-active MP).
Even if they get close but no cigar and secure a coalition it would be with the Conservatives, whose failures will not be forgotten soon.
I think it is wholly possible, alas, that Reform will see a hundred or so MPs and be the official opposition. But it should not be overstated that the Liberal Democrats will sooner offer to be in a coalition with Labour, and the country tolerate that again from them, than allow Reform the chance to undo Labour's work.
And that is before you consider that, ahem, the shine is off Reform's chums in the USA already and that situation is not going to get better soon. Reform would need a massive amount of money -- Musk money and sketchy crypto money, basically -- to get anywhere, and Trump's orange thumb on the scale with US social media firms. And we don't like that stuff. I cannot stress enough how badly that kind of intervention would go for them.
There are not many people in the UK who would say that Starmer's win was a "huge win for the left". Especially Labour voters. The "left" doesn't have much to do with it. Centrism, sanity, and the hope for an end to grift and stupidity and cruelty do. The failings of the right -- of idiots like Liz Truss and Brexit -- have more.
Reform fielded a candidate in essentially every constituency in 2024 and got five elected. One of them is sitting as an independent already because he's under investigation for corruption.
Yes, Reform got a huge swing in the local (council) elections, and some people think that is predictive. But historically it's nowhere near as predictive as Reform voters would like.