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BartjeD

And this is after they massaged the numbers, to avoid getting fired?

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Now we only get to hear if inflation is "Aladeen" or "Aladeen"

Employment aladeen, inflation aladeen. Chances of stagflation looking very aladeen indeed.

It makes our macro forecasting a bit less dimensional...

:(…:)…:(

I think it's more like "No Sir we won't be able to lower the rate right now, look at this number" moment.

Inflation too high?

Straight to jail.

Inflation to low?

Believe it or not, straight to jail.

More like the Epstein Massage

I don't think any existing numbers were officially changed, just that the head of BLS was fired.

Yes, for THAT head of the BLS. It is super clear to the next head of the BLS that they deliver the number the president likes or they will be fired.

So, just like in Venezuela, that number will be delivered.

Picturing a future political cartoon of hobo-looking guys sitting around a winter fire burning in an old oil drum — one guy is holding up a newspaper (wut?) and saying to the rest, "Hey guys, it's fine because it says here that the employment numbers reported are the best ever!"

You mean like this one?

http://emilysquotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EmilysQuo...

Timeless, ha ha.

If value was actually created every time before it was distributed to shareholders, it wouldn't be nearly as bleak as when the value is instead rapidly extracted from a long-term reservoir to make the numbers go up.

wanna bet? i will take a bet that inflation will not return to normal (ie. sub 2.1) in the next report

Sure it will. BLS guy will publish that number regardless.

That said, I also think there is a good chance of that because we will be in a recession by then from the tariffs.

Indeed, a gentleman's bet.

They fired the head of the BLS because they didn't like the numbers. Explicitly. You kinda have to conclude they're going to cook the books. Like they're doing everywhere else.

Apparently, they've decided to go with "just not report the numbers."

(Source: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trumps-bls-pick-could-p...).

I still like the quote, "Reality has a well-known liberal bias."

> I still like the quote, "Reality has a well-known liberal bias."

— https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Colbert_at_the_2006_Wh...

That interview was unfortunately timed (taped before nomination, broadcast afterward). My takeaway was that they are not trying "just not report the numbers" _yet_.

Do you think his position has changed since that interview?

I think his position changes between breakfast and lunch.

In the end, it won't matter.

Only economists, policy makers, investors and people blabbing on the internet do care about stats.

Ordinary people just look at price tags; that's all they need.

The challenge with that idea is that investors and business people depend on these numbers being solid for investment decisions like "building a new factory" or "investing in GPUs."

Without solid numbers I wouldn't be surprised to see a shift to "assuming the worst case" and much more conservative and lower investment.

I fall into all four categories, which identity am I allowed to require that we not kill our economy with inflation?

It's nice to have agreed-upon, citable facts though, even if only so that voters know who's full of crap during a debate. When the next R candidate says that Trump handled inflation beautifully, it's important to be able to point to an authoritative source that shows that that claim is BS.

The majority of R voters don't care about authoritative sources. In fact, authority when it comes to information is a negative in their view, based on all available evidence (ie elections over the past few decades). We're well past the point that debates matter.

> The majority of R voters don't care about authoritative sources.

Hence the joke: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2X93u3anTco&t=98s

Debates may not matter to R voters. There are enough independent voters to matter, though.

R voters say you can't trust mainstream media and then cheer when this administration fills it's ranks with mainstream media people from FOX, including the head of defense, top D.C. Prosecutors, etc.

Yes, it *would be* nice to have well-informed voters and intelligent and well-argued discussions.

But we'll never live in a place like that. We're stuck in the Facebook/Twitter/WhatsApp world.

Democracy is a circus managed by the monkey cage.

> Yes, it would be nice to have well-informed voters and intelligent and well-argued discussions.

"Feelings don't care about (your) facts." — not Ben Shapiro, https://www.amazon.com/Facts-Dont-Care-about-Feelings/dp/194...

"You don’t bring facts to a feelings fight." — Cole Christie, https://www.in8create.com/blog/herding-squirrels-ep-03-w-col...

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