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Comment by sundaeofshock | Hacker News Reader

That works because you are a senior developer who knows how to properly use the AI tools. What 10 years from now? What happens when senior devs are retiring and we do t have replacements since we replaced junior devs with AI?

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Presumably, AI has advanced in 10 years?

Do you believe there's a threshold to how good this stuff can get, or do you think it's all infinite upside?

Obviously not infinite, but humans have very real limitations too. We've all seen them.

A materialist could logically conclude that it still has some way to go.

Well I'd probably consider myself a materialist but I'm not sure I'd agree. The evidence to me seems that it can really only come from two places: additional compute or new breakthroughs in AI learning. Compute's coming, certainly, but that only has the potential to improve things if it's added in conjunction with a commensurate AI breakthrough. I think the trend in improvement for transformer could be logistic, not exponential, like a lot of the snake-oil salesman like to state. And while there's plenty of evidence for compute there isn't much for the AI breakthrough that leads to an exponential jump, and if it does exist it's a trade secret, so until we know we don't know.

> What happens when senior devs are retiring and we do t have replacements since we replaced junior devs with AI?

... AI eats senior devs. Vibe coding front-end devs inherit the earth. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Clzx434IV6o

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