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Comment by paulcole | Hacker News Reader

> There’s obviously a financial bubble in full force.

If it’s so obvious, figure out how to bet against it, get rich, and never have to worry about productivity again.

> The environmental impact is real.

If every LLM disappeared tomorrow, the environment is still equally fucked as it is today. “Think of the environment” is the second most mindless appeal to emotion argument against anything other than “Think of the children.”

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It's cute when people think they can all exploit the current market and "get rich" when in reality they almost always just help the same people who are already rich, get richer. I say that as someone who has himself, started and sold a startup with a couple friend... The reality is I got SUPER LUCKY. The chances of any individual "making it" in the system that currently exists are minuscule to none. You might be better off playing the lottery and hoping to hit big. The chances of either are ridiculously low. The author didn't say how to solve the bubble crisis we are watching. Usually they aren't things you can solve. He simply acknowledged a huge one is forming and he isn't wrong.

This is exceptionally true. I'd love to get rich like anyone else, but my odds of landing that perfect trade are extremely remote. I prefer VTSAX and letting it ride for years, if not decades. Time in the market is going to be far more consistently good in the long run rather than trying to win on a lucky stock pick... or lucky lottery numbers for that matter.

Who is thinking that?

I think that the person who wrote this blog post is supremely deluded about their ability to identify a bubble.

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent" -- John Maynard Keynes

It's why I just invest in indexes and not sweat it. Yeah, I won't make big bucks like some day traders do if they get lucky (like one guy I saw make $50k on an option contract for RDDT with just a few grand of starting capital), but that's just too nerve-wracking for me.

Someone who is extremely skilled at trading stocks, and consistently out-performs the market, while having access to a median amount of money, is going to earn like $10 an hour.

Most people don't have access to enough money to begin profitable trading. Most people don't have a realistic option to even try trading.

I would think that someone who is absolutely sure we are in the middle of a massive bubble would do everything in their power to bet as much as possible against it.

Because they are absolutely sure that we are in the middle of a massive bubble, they surely can’t lose, right?

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