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Why is 90% for each step such an insurmountable probability?

Maybe it's completely unreasonable for you to assume the causation for each step isn't on the order of 99%. Your argument is too abstract to be a relevant rebuttal.

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It’s a generic argument that can be applied to a whole class of claims. I see smart people falling into this trap all the time. Someone is making a claim by presenting a series of steps that seem quite reasonable. You then are left in a position where you can either: a) accept the overall conclusion, or b) attack the individual reasoning steps. All I’m doing is pointing out a possibility that your reasoning steps can be entirely plausible while your conclusion is completely wrong.

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