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Comment by bitexploder | Hacker News Reader

This will create what I am calling a “seniority crunch”. Entry level jobs are hard to get, humans aren’t learning the deeper aspects and reasoning parts of knowledge work. Gap created for people with this knowledge. Senior IC jobs demand goes up. Fewer with xp to fill it. LLMs don’t reason well. They can’t do that and likely never will be coaxed into it. Just one scenario I think is plausible.

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No, this is the likely path. LLMs are hitting a wall. They’ll get better, much better, but high context “brownfield” tasks are going to remain difficult and require human handholding.

The industry is cutting itself off at the knees.

It's not like juniors roles will go away. More and more - it's looking like there's a higher bar for high compensation that was the norm. It seems like juniors SWEs will have to toil more to reach higher level of skills, become valuable to their teams, before they "make" it. I'm seeing this trend across the engg leaders I speak with.

And who's gonna pay them while doing this ramp up? Years and years of getting skills? What are the eng leaders saying about it, if anything?

Of course engineers will be paid, just that entry level pay has come down. (Pay at entry level has fallen at least 40% in the mid-size product sector).

I think this is the most likely outcome. It'll drive salaries up in 5-10 years when there's a serious talent pipeline shortage and the demand for senior talent isn't satisfied by a dry pipeline.

Or it will lead to demand for massive government job programs, huge tax increases to pay for, free enterprise being smothered, everything being run by government bureaucrats.

All thanks to AI entrepreneurs, such a great achievement. Just like AirBnB destroying the historical centers nowadays, disruption at its best - just a different disruption from what they claim.

Or it will require college students to complete one or more internships which use AI to show they have already learned to be productive using AI before they graduate.

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