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if development cost trends to zero but maintenance requires expertise, there will be no maintenance, all code will be thrown out ASAP

How will this work for users that depend on the software, and businesses that depend on the revenue from those users?

You vibe code a new release with all the previous context plus "fix also this bug".

a mixture of ossification if something mostly works, and a constantly shifting morass for the rest

so somewhat worse than what we have now