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Maybe this won't be. How long do you think a machine will be able to outdo any human in any given domain? I personally think it will be after they are able to rewrite their own code. You?

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They write their own code now so how long will it be?

Seems like this will be one of the areas that will improve with multi-agentic AI, where groups of agents can operate via consensus, check/test outputs, manage from a higher meta level, etc. Not that any of that would be "magic" but the advantages of expanding laterally to that approach seem fairly obvious when it comes to software development.

So in my eyes actually think it's probably more to do with reducing the cost of AI inference by another order of magnitude, at least when it comes to mass market tools. Existing basic code-generation tools from a single AI are already fairly expensive to run compute wise.

They "can" write parts of it. But they can't rewire the weights. They are learned not coded.

> I personally think it will be after they are able to rewrite their own code.

My threshold is when it can create a new Google

Why not putting it earlier than that. Why not starting and running it's own LLC. I would think when that LLC is bigger than Google it might already be obvious.

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